Top Value on Colts Spread vs. Jaguars for NFL Picks

Nikki Adams

Wednesday, September 17, 2014 10:27 PM UTC

Wednesday, Sep. 17, 2014 10:27 PM UTC

Indianapolis Colts are still searching for their first win on the season, so too are the Jacksonville Jaguars. Something is going to have to give when these winless sides collide at EverBank Field on Sunday.

Indianapolis Colts Sputter Out of the Gate 0-2
Indianapolis Colts are in slight panic mode right now after a gut-wrenching 0-2 start on the season, which puts them last in the AFC South. Opening on a 31-24 defeat in Denver and following up with a 30-27 defeat, the Colts were done in by defensive issues and costly turnovers. Now they are faced with a must-win game in Jacksonville. The alternative beggars belief: 0-3 start on the season would be tantamount to disaster, almost certain to write off their season in its entirety. As it stands, less than 12% of teams that start the season 0-2 make the playoffs.

The Colts are after a disappointing home defeat to the Eagles, a game that they were in full control of after the first half when they raced to 17-6 lead. And a game in which they twice took the lead in the second half. The Philadelphia Eagles, who stormed back from a 17-0 deficit in their season-opener against the Jaguars, weren’t to be denied however. Once again, they rallied.  It took clutch play from Nick Foles and some monster plays by LeSean McCoy and Darren Sproles, along with some help from the Colts through costly turnovers, for the Eagles to stun the Colts in a 30-27 victory.

For the AFC South champions it’s the worst-case scenario; it also marks the first time Andrew Luck (who went 20-of-34 for 172 yards and three touchdowns) has lost two in a row in his NFL career. 


Jacksonville Jaguars Woes Continue
Jacksonville Jaguars appear to be headed towards another AFC South basement finish (or thereabouts), a spot in the division they are most familiar with over the last few seasons. Picking up where they left off at the end of last season – a run of three straight defeats to cap an unmemorable 4-12 account (only Houston had a worse record of 2-14) – they opened the season with two straight defeats – 34-17 to Eagles and a whopping 41-10 to Redskins.

On a run of five straight defeats, the Jaguars are in very real dangers of falling to a sixth straight defeat when they host Indianapolis on Sunday. As it stands, their record against the AFC South champions leaves much to be desired with just one win in their last four meetings – a 22-17 road win over Indy on September 23. Since that coup, they’ve succumbed to three defeats, including both games last season – a 37-3 defeat at home and a 30-10 routing in Indianapolis in week 17.


NFL Betting Line:
Indianapolis Colts -280, -6.5 (-110) O/U 45.5
Jacksonville Jaguars +245, +6.5 (-110) O/U 45.5

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NFL Betting Verdict
It is anathema to fans to see their beloved Indianapolis Colts in a subservient role in the AFC South. Bottom of the table, they can’t go any lower. They have no room for defeat either if they hope to prove a 12%ish-anomaly and make it into the playoffs after stuttering out of the gates on a 0-2 start. So NFL bettors can expect that Andrew Luck and company will stir the Colts to a resounding victory in Jacksonville on Sunday and come through as the odds-on, road favourites at -280. That the Colts are the smart NFL bet to win straight up is propelled by several key facts, not least of which it’s the Jaguars. A division rival the Indianapolis Colts owned last season. In fact, the Colts are 7-3 in their last ten games at EverBank Field.

It also helps the Colts’ cause in straight up betting that the Jaguars have many issues of their own. They are bottom of the stats sheet in just about every category:  32nd in net total yards with 454 yards; 28th in passing offense with just a paltry 182.5 yards per game and dead last in rushing offense with a measly 44.5 yards. It’s not just offense that appears utterly slovenly and lazy though. Defense is nothing to write home about either. More porous than Swiss cheese, defense has allowed 75 points against and opposing offenses to combine for 869 yards of offense in just two games.

Frankly, given these dizzying numbers, it’s rather surprising to see NFL odds set at a mere 6.5-points and the Over-Under betting set rather low at 45.5. Jaguars are 2-0 in over-under betting, and they are also 0-2 ATS this season, which includes an incredible -24-points average loss margin and an average -16.5-points a team covers the spread by. Consider Kirk Cousins and the Redskins pushed 41 points past the Jaguars last week while holding them down to just ten points, surely Andrew Luck with five touchdowns (1 less than TD guru Peyton Manning has in 2014), 542 passing yards and an 85.5 QBR could put up just as many points, if not more? Indeed, the Colts as the 6.5-point favourites is a good bet, especially if the Colts only win by a touchdown. However, since the Jaguars have been leaking points like nobody's business, for your NFL picks, we feel the value bet is with 5-dimes at -7 (+100) and the Over 45.5.

NFL Picks:  Colts -7 (+100) and Over 45.5 at 5Dimes


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