Top Up Your Wagering Ticket With These Week 3 Best Totals Picks

Jacksonville Jaguars players on the field

Nikki Adams

Thursday, September 22, 2016 8:23 PM GMT

Thursday, Sep. 22, 2016 8:23 PM GMT

Top up your football wagers with these stellar week 3 Over and Under Picks. We highlight a couple of matchups that feature reverse line moves and practically leap off the page as must bets.

Oakland Raiders vs. Tennessee Titans
The Raiders top the charts with the league’s best offense? So say the stats with the Raiders sporting 940 yards in total offense that includes 309 passing yards per game and 161 rushing yards per game all while putting up an average of 31.5 points. Granted a two-game cross-section is but a small sample. Nevertheless, those are heady stats. The problem is how much weight should NFL bettors put on numbers gained at the expense of two questionable defenses – Saints and Falcons, who are sat at the bottom of the league’s standings in defensive categories.

On the flipside, the Raiders defense is atrocious and totally cancels out anything the offense is doing. If anything, it puts more pressure on Derek Carr and the O-line. Something is going to have to give eventually.

In week 3, the Raiders take on a so-so Titans side that is considered to be a class below the Raiders. After two games though the Titans are 1-1 SU just like the Raiders and coming off an upset over the Lions. What’s interesting about these proponents of ‘smash-mouth football’ is that they’re not too shabby defensively. Indeed, they held one of the best defensive-minded teams in week 1 to a nominal victory and stifled Mathew Stafford and the Lions offense a week after they stunned the Colts in a shootout.

Totals for this game are trading at high 47 points and NFL betting trends point towards the OVER being the popular NFL pick. That said, some books have brought the total down to 46.5 points already, which is a conscious move against the public. A telling sign, which might mean the sharp bet is the UNDER after all.


Free NFL Picks: Under 47 -110 
Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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Baltimore Ravens vs. Jacksonville Jaguars
The Baltimore Ravens are winning ugly but they are 2-0 SU and ATS and they are 1-1 in over-under betting this season, the latter of which includes a -10.8 differential versus the closing total line. Emphasis has been on defense, which currently ranks second behind Seattle in total defensive stats and is leaking an average of 13 points per game. It’s important though to consider that those numbers came at the expense of two teams that are now 0-2 SU and don’t figure to factor at all – Bills and Browns. So it easy to instinctively react towards an UNDER bet on this game.

That is also further underscored by Jacksonville’s awful awful awful (yes, repeated three times intentionally) in San Diego last week. Blake Bortles and the O-line had a forgettable account. However, they were coming up against a furious Philip Rivers and a Chargers side that was looking to save face after fritting away the lead In week 1 to the Chiefs and eventually losing in overtime. Keep in mind, the Jaguars did perform well in week 1 against the Green Bay Packers and very nearly won.

As it is, betting is firmly trending on the UNDER at most sports betting exchanges, which is a credit to the Baltimore Ravens and last week’s offensive debacle combined. (A total of 92% of the tickets are going towards the UNDER, which represents one-sided public betting).

However, some books are back up to 47.5 on the NFL odds board and, in some cases, books are moving the NFL total line between the 47 and 47.5 mark interchangeably, which is a sign that potential sharp money might be moving the total back up and against the public NFL betting trends. A sharps vs. public scenario, if you will. Could prove to be the smart bet, therefore, to go against the public and shade the OVER for your NFL week 3 predictions.


Free NFL Picks: Over 47 -110 
Best Line Offered: at Bodog

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