Top Totals Plays for Week 8: Bengals Will Run It Up on Colts

Doug Upstone

Friday, October 27, 2017 12:54 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 27, 2017 12:54 PM UTC

Sportsbooks haven't found the sweet spot on picking totals in the last month, with the OVER having the slightest 30-29 edge. That does not mean there is not opportunity to cash for sage football bettors.

For example, you can stay right here and read over this entire article and find in the last six weeks we are 13-5 for NFL picks on totals. Trust me, bragging is not my deal, being well acquainted with the fickle nature of predicting anything in professional football; still, I have made a nice living betting sports and writing about them for a quite awhile. When looking over the NFL odds for this week for total, here is what I am thinking.


Colts and Bengals Surpass Total

Outside of six quarters of football, the Cincinnati offense has not done much. NFL analysts have regularly ripped the Bengals offensive line, which is not passing blocking to give Andy Dalton time to throw nor creating many running lanes for backs. Cincy did score 31 points against Cleveland, and being able to do battle with Indianapolis should raise the Bengals' scoring average with the Colts conceding a league-worst 31.7 points a contest. With the listed total at 42, all we need from Indy is its season average of 17 PPG. For good measure, the Colts are 9-1 OVER as a road underdog the last two seasons, with average total score 54.6.

Free NFL Pick: Over 42Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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AFC Affair Goes Lower Than Anticipated

In New England's first four games of the season, it scored a lot and gave up a host of points and played four OVERS. With defensive adjustments, the Patriots have gone from permitting 32 PPG to 17 PPG in their past three starts. The Los Angeles Chargers offense has been pedestrian at 19.8 PPG, sometimes forced to throw too often when the running game is shut down and being below average in having 'chunk plays' of 20 yards or more. While any New England game seems like a natural for an OVER, let's go UNDER the 48.5 with the Pats a 27-20 victory.

Free NFL Pick: Under 48.5Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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Bettors Force Oddsmakers To Overcompensate on Total

When 43 points was sent out for the total the on Houston at Seattle showdown, my original thought was this has OVER possibilities. I was not the only one having this opinion and the total was lifted to 46. This now seems like an overreaction because the Seattle defense has started to play to talent level and is allowing a NFL-best 15.7 PPG. One cannot be anything but impressed with how QB Deshaun Watson has played, yet Seattle is a completely different environment and this has rattled even the most veteran quarterbacks, let alone a rookie on his first trip to town. With the Seahawks 6-0 UNDER after three or more consecutive wins, the lower score is the play.

Free NFL Pick: Under 46Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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