Top Totals Plays for Week 6: Non-Shootout in Big Easy?

Doug Upstone

Friday, October 13, 2017 1:19 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 13, 2017 1:19 PM UTC

Time to dig into Week 6 of the NFL season. Not one to boast if you follow my articles and videos here over the years, but right now on a nice 10-2 run this season when talking about totals.

That is a pretty good pace we have set for NFL picks and obviously not something we can sustain; nonetheless, not too much ask to have two out of three winners, right? In looking over the remaining NFL odds, here is what I am forecasting as your friendly handicapping expert for Week 6.

Look for Some Voodoo in the Bayou

Matthew Stafford and Drew Brees a shootout right? I am thinking the opposite, and here is why: Both defenses are playing better, and while Detroit had coverage issues with Can Newton last week, that has not been the norm this season. I wish I could explain the New Orleans defense. Had a contact tell me that unit was vastly improved in August, and after two games I called and mocked his information. He called me after a Miami shutout and asked what I thought. The Saints have ironed out what was wrong, and I like the Lions' pass and improved run defense. With Detroit 12-3 UNDER on the road in conference clashes the past three seasons and 9-1 UNDER away off a home game, I will back the UNDER 50 points in early Sunday action.

Free NFL Pick: Under 50Best Line Offered: Pinnacle

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West Coast/East Coast Clash That Goes By the Number

Two of this season's bigger surprises have been the Los Angeles Rams and Jacksonville. The Rams offensively have been sensational in scoring 30.4 points a game. Even last week when they only scored 10 points against Seattle, they moved the pigskin with 375 yards of offense but were done in by five turnovers. Jacksonville has been much improved also, now at 27.8 PPG and the Jags' points have come in outbursts. With the Jaguars 6-0 OVER after or one more Unders and 14-5 OVER in games where the line is +3 to -3 since 2015, that is my call.

Free NFL Pick: Over 43Best Line Offered: Heritage

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Chicago and Baltimore in Defensive Battle

Bears fans got a look at their top draft choice (they hope savior) in QB Mitchell Trubisky, and he played about as expected on Monday night in a late loss to Minnesota. He was fine early, but as man coverage got tighter in the second half, his accuracy went down. Baltimore's Joe Flacco had his best all-around game of the season in a victory over Oakland last week, but to think he is 100 percent reliable is a misnomer. When I look at these two offenses, they are at their best when the run game is working and both head coaches are definitely committed to rushing the ball first. This in turn moves the clock along and cuts down on the number of plays. For this encounter, I will side with the lower score and paying attention to the Ravens being 13-4 UNDER at home after outgaining their previous opponent by 100 or more total yards.

Free NFL Pick: Under 39.5Best Line Offered: JustBet

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