Top Totals Plays for Week 5: Ravens-Raiders Pick Might Surprise

Doug Upstone

Thursday, October 5, 2017 1:14 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 5, 2017 1:14 PM UTC

More than a quarter of NFL regular season will be completed after this week. This far in, those betting football should be comfortable with the data created, and now it is just about making sound judgments.

Unless you are totals-first football bettor (which I am not), you always have to work a little harder to find the right games and complimentary situations to beat the NFL odds. Thus far, this has worked out rather well for NFL picks with a 7-2 spread record. Here are three Week 5 totals picks.


Bills and Bengals Butt Heads in Low-Scoring Affair

In this AFC clash, the first aspect to consider is how well both Buffalo and Cincinnati are playing defense. The Bills are first in fewest points allowed at 13.5 per game and the Bengals are third at 16.7. Buffalo has gotten more respect because they have 3-1 record compared to Cincinnati at 1-3.

Offensively, both continue to underperform with the Bills averaging 18.2 PPG, having faced opponents who have allowed 20.3, and Cincy at 16 PPG taking on foes who have surrendered 22.

Meld these two parts together and add road teams like Buffalo that have a win percentage of 75 percent or higher who have won two of last three games and going a club with a losing record are 23-4 UNDER.

Free NFL Pick: Under 39.5Best Line Offered: 5Dimes

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Go Contrarian in Oak-Town

The offenses for Baltimore and Oakland have been more off key than Samuel L. Jackson singing on those Capital One Quicksilver TV commercials. The Ravens have tallied a whopping 16 points in two defeats, and the Raiders are not much better at 20 points in their two losses.

With quarterback Derek Carr out and EJ Manuel in for Oakland, and Joe Flacco by his own admission "not playing well", why in the name of Ted Hendricks (HOF -- Google it) would I take the OVER 39?

For Baltimore, it has to focus on a sickly offense this week and get something happening down the field that lands in the end zone. The same is true of Oakland, which has to now play to Manuel's strengths and do a better job in the vertical passing game. Both teams reach at least 20 points.

Free NFL Pick: Over 39Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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Public Taking Pack-Cowboys Total in Wrong Direction

Green Bay will be at Jerry's World on Sunday, the same place they knocked Dallas out of the postseason back in January. The Packers pulled off a 34-31 upset and both teams blew by the total of 53.

This time sportsbooks sent out a total of 53.5, and it has been lowered to 52.5 or 52, depending on what you see at the SBR NFL odds page.

I think the public has this wrong. Aaron Rodgers and Dak Prescott are both capable of big games and are surrounded by players who can make that happen. Since the season opener for both clubs, the defenses have not been close to dominating, and when you realize these two are 10-1 OVER playing each other in the Lone Star State, you can now understand what I have bet on.

Free NFL Pick: Over 52.5Best Line Offered: Bovada

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