Top Totals Plays for Week 14: Not Much Scoring in Hawks-Jags

Doug Upstone

Friday, December 8, 2017 3:53 PM UTC

Friday, Dec. 8, 2017 3:53 PM UTC

We are down to the last quarter of the NFL season and every game matters ... unless your team blows and many players just want to pick up checks and are already making after-season vacation plans.

Sorry, getting ahead of how numerous players actually think, and I instead should be focused on figuring out the NFL odds for betting totals. Actually, I have been and though I had a rare losing week in Week 13, hard to argue with a still money-making 23-12-1 ATS mark. Just one my three choices for NFL picks has any meaning in the playoff picture, but that is just fine, because nobody is headed to the postseason based on outcome of a total going 'over/under.'

In Jacksonville, Get Ready For D-Fence

By the numbers, Jacksonville is the best defensive team in the NFL, ranked first in fewest points allowed per game (14.8) and yards surrendered (282.5). Just a few seasons ago, Seattle was in this stratosphere, but with free agency, injuries and advancing age, the Seahawks have slipped a bit -- but are still 8th and 9th, respectively, in those categories. The Jaguars have the all-around defense to curtail Russell Wilson, and you can rest assured the Seahawks are far more worried about Jags running game than QB Blake Bortles. Expect a tough, physical contest with the playoff stakes still very high.

Free NFL Pick: Under 40Best Line Offered: BetOnline

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Niners & Texans in H-Town Shootout, Sort Of

While Garoppolo and Savage might sound like a start-up law firm, they are the starting quarterbacks for San Francisco and Houston, respectively. Jimmy Garoppolo led San Francisco to a rare victory last week, yet he and the offense still need improvement as they were 0-for-5 in reaching the end zone in the red zone. Houston's Tom Savage is just as likely to throw an interception as a touchdown, but from our perspective both lead to points. With the 49ers currently 25th in scoring defense and the Texans 28th, one should be able to envision both signal-callers and their offenses having excellent days. The total of 43 is not a tall hurdle, and besides road teams like Frisco scoring 17 or less PPG after tallying 17 points or less in two straight outings are 28-7 OVER.

Free NFL Pick: Over 43Best Line Offered: Bookmaker

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Inconsequential AFC Affair Will Feature Points

The New York Jets and Denver Broncos: spending three hours watching this contest will be as painful as being forced to watch 180 consecutive minutes of Real Housewives of Atlanta. Lucky for us, we don't have to watch, all we have to do is wager the OVER on 41.5. How will this be possible? It starts with whomever is playing quarterback for the Broncos, as he is guaranteed to make at least two turnovers, which leads to at least 10 Jets points. Next, look for the Denver offense to go off the charts and reach 23 points (they average 17.2) at home vs. the Gang Green defense that has allowed 27.3 PPG in past three starts. Finally, combine an overrated Denver defense with crummy special teams, and the Flyboys also reach at least the low 20s for points. For good measure, realize the Broncos are 24-10 OVER after surrendering 35 points or more in their previous game.

Free NFL Pick: Over 41.5Best Line Offered: Betmania

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