Top Super Bowl Prop Betting Picks: From Conventional to the Absurd

Kevin Stott

Thursday, January 22, 2015 1:39 PM UTC

Thursday, Jan. 22, 2015 1:39 PM UTC

Every year, the list of Prop Bets for the Super Bowl grows longer and longer and some the exotic bets have become beyond strange. Let’s look at some early Props from and make some picks for next Sunday’s big game.

Often it seems the Propositions Bets marketplace for the NFL’s Super Bowl has more decent options and perceived value than some of the more conventional bet types for the game and this year’s Super Bowl XLIX from the University of Phoenix Stadium in the Phoenix suburb of Glendale next Sunday, February 1 (NBC, 6:30 p.m. ET/3:30 p.m. PT) is no exception although betting limits from shop to shop are usually much smaller than they are for wagers on sides, Totals, Money Lines and such. Offshore sports book has released a number of predictable and unpredictable Props for this annual NFL championship game between the AFC’s New England Patriots and QB Tom Brady and the NFC’s representative and the defending champion Seattle Seahawks and their QB, Russell Wilson.

Let’s examine eight different Props wagers on offer at many online sportsbooks and give short reasons why it would be logical to back the acompanying play. Having been to the stadium and experienced its mall-like environment, it’s safe to say that the air and the air temperature and the humidity and precipitation involved there will be nothing like the conditions these two teams dealt with in their two home playoff games. Have you ever thrown a Nerf football in a Walmart? That’s what this will be like for Brady and Wilson—save for the hyped-up 333-pound defenders running at them at full speed with foam dripping from their chinstraps with the intent to rip their heads off, helmet and all. Anyway, here they are.

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First Score Of Game: Any Other Score +135
This is basically a bet between a TD (-155) and a FG occurring first, although a safety is always a remote possibility. And should that happen, this bet wins anyway. The thought here is that both teams will be tight in the first quarter of this massive game and that the two teams are very evenly matched. The defenses are both good and both coaches will be wanting to get their points when available knowing how talented their opponents are. And with the Patriots K Stephen Gostkowski (35-37, 94.6%) and the Seahawks K Steven Hauschka (31-37, 83.8%) so good at kicking FGs—and neither has missed an XP all season either—and the aforementioned favorable field conditions: The first fully retractable natural grass field built in the country and climatic conditions perfect for kicking pigskins and selling chorizos—the thought is that Friar Belichick and Monsieur Carroll will take their points where they can. And the one team with the better chance of getting to the end zone quickly by air, New England, would have to do so against the top rated defense in the NFL and DBs like Kam Chancellor and Interception Machine Richard Sherman. This bet will be won by a man named Steven. Or maybe Stephen. It’s hard to tell. My Crystal Ball is foggy.


Will Either Team Score in the First 6 Minutes? No -115
If Brady and the Patriots get the ball first, their problem will be trying to go the length of the field against the best defense in the NFL in years, while if Wilson and the Seahawks get the ball first, the third-year QB’s performance out of the gate last week against the Green Bay Packers in the NFC Championship game in Seattle can’t exactly instill confidence in the hearts of Seahawks fans or Yes (-115) bettors here. Wilson was throwing bad balls over receiver’s heads at home, and, with a below average receiving corps, scoring through the air in the first 6 minutes seems like a dream for the defending champs who prefer to run the ball. And with both teams looking to establish the rush early, the clock will be tick, tick, ticking...another reason to like the ‘No’ here. The street heats the urgency of now.


Total Points Scored: 43-49 +375
My first, honest deduction came down to a 23-20 final in this Super Bowl, with defense winning the championship as it always seems to do. To get to that end of 43, I saw the winner scoring 2 TDs (14 points) and 3 FGs (9 points) to get to that total of 23 while the loser here theoretically had 2 TDs (14 points) and 2 FGs (6 points) for 20 total points. With 43 on the low spectrum of this prediction, 6 more points can be allowed (44-45-46-47-48-49) for a win and this bet, which has a healthy plus and is actually in the range of the current posted Total for Super Bowl XLIX (48, Westgate Las Vegas SuperBook, Pinnacle), is both fun and could potentially near 4/1 odds. And if the Seahawks shut out the Patriots, 43-0, this baby cashes too. Viva la Revolución.


Players To Score a TD: Marshawn Lynch -166, Julian Edelman +115
Patriots veteran QB Brady likes to throw to his big buddy TE Rob Gronkowski (-150), but WR Julian Edelman will probably be targeted more in this game as he will be better at finding the open seams underneath and being able to hide between the LBs and DBs downfield. The quick and sure-handed Edelman is also very good after the catch and good at slant and buttonhook routes. For the Seahawks, RB Marshawn Lynch has simply been red-hot, and as was written here last week when suggesting an Anytime TD prop bet on Mr. Lynch in the NFC Championship game, when he’s in this beast-mode, it’s best to keep feeding the pet tiger that steak as the tiger will keep rewarding you with at least 6 points a game. And a team that has trouble scoring via the air will have no problem just giving it to its 1,000-yard rusher who is at his best when he’s real happy. And Lynch is real happy these days. Fed-tiger happy.


Bill Belichick: What Color Hoodie Will He Wear? Blue +105
My Black Belt Google Image skills have revealed to me and my cat Louie Smudge that New England head coach Bill Belichick wore a Blue (+105) hoodie against both the Indianapolis Colts in the AFC Championship and against the Baltimore Ravens in the AFC Divisional Round, both games at Gillette Stadium in Foxboro where maybe a thick, new blue hoodie would be the best piece of clothing for the forecasted weather conditions. So, now in decent weather and away from home does Belichick decide to don the Grey (-145), the favorites for some unknown reason (although oddsmakers always have a reason and if Gray is the chalk here there must be Inside Hoodie Information somewhere) in this odd apparel-related marketplace? I say no. The dude won in a blue hoodie twice in a row and why mess with success?

Anyway, the Seahawks are the home team here and will get to choose what uniforms they wear so maybe the thought is that seattle chooses their Blue and the Patriots have to go with the White and light and Belichick matches them (sort of) with Grey? My god, I spent less time thinking about what food to buy at the store today than I just spent imagining what kind of apparel this quirky 62-year-old grown man—who has a apparently has a penchant for deflating footballs and mumbling—might be wearing in a game being played between massive, steroid-infused men wearing colorful plastic helmets, fighting to get an oblong ball down a movable field of real grass that’s being kept indoors in a mall somewhere in the Sonoran Desert. Where did I go wrong? The horror. The horror.

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Bill Belichick: What Hoodie Sleeve Style Will He Wear? Sleeves +140
How is it I can only find wonderful underdog value in College Football and the Super Bowl odds marketplace? Is this a test? Were these lines made by seals? And, who did actually let those dogs out? We never found out. Anyway, back to Uncle Bill’s top. As mentioned above, the Patriots affable head coach seemed to have fairly new and uncut Blue hoodies for both the Ravens and Colts games and he may even wear that same one again if it indeed was/is the same one. I’d have more, but My Crack Source was last seen sneaking into the New England locker room and I believe that Vince Wilfork may have found the poor fella and stuffed him into a locker, slowing my information gathering process. I’ll get back to you. Anyway, what kind of heathen would cut off sleeves and have raggedy-ass looking sleeves for the Big Game? (I know. Belichick would.) Zillions will be watching. The Sleeves Cut (-185) is the heavy favorite here, and maybe with the nice conditions inside Univerity of Phoenix Stadium Belichick will elect to go with the arm freedom, but the New England head coach may be tired of hearing about all the cut sleeves crap. The man is 2-0 with Uncut Sleeves this postseason. Why fall prey to the evil scissors?


Katy Perry: What Will She Be Wearing During Her First Song Appearance of Super Bowl XLIX? Dress/Skirt -150
Since ‘Clothes’ and ‘Nothing’ weren’t options, this seems like a more logical pick than the Pants/Shorts/Any Other (+110) choice offered up for the bet which is based around the 30-year-old American pop singer’s halftime performance. The thought is, with so many watching and publicists and parents and PC-ness so damn big these days, Katy Perry will go, or be told to go with a smart, (probably brightly colored) skirt or dress by her stylist(s). (My god, send help brother. I’ve gone off the deep end.) If Perry comes out in a barrel, a tutu or a plastic bubble, I’m afraid we’ve lost this bet bubba, that is unless of course it’s some type of Plastic Bubble Dress. It is 2015 afterall, homeskillet. I may actually like this pick more than my actual Super Bowl pick. The bastards have finally won.


Idina Menzel: How Long Will it Take Her to Sing National Anthem (From First Singing Note Starts Until Completes Singing ‘Brave’)? Under 122½ Seconds -115
Forty-three-year-old American actress and singer-songwriter Idina Menzel will be singing the National Anthem before the kickoff here at the super Bowl and a simple piece of research reveals that when Menzel—who sang the hit song “Let It Go” from the popular Disney Movie Frozen—sang the National Anthem at the 2014 MLB All-Star Game at Target Field in Minneapolis, Minnesota, it actually took her about 1:59 (119 seconds) to sing the song despite the 2:15 length (135 seconds) of the video. Just a seemingly small edge (3.5 seconds), but the thoughts here are that Menzel will be a bit nervous singing for so many more people; will have the rigid timing of the Super Bowl schedule in the back of her mind; and, in the All-Star Game version, Menzel did hold very many long notes—as she’s expected to do here—and did have fairly long pause before the last line of the “Star-Spangled Banner” as fighter jets flew by for special effect. So, her almost 2-minute performance seemed as natural and about as long as she could sing the song without appearing unnatural or over the top.

Although 3½ seconds might not seem like much, it does seem like a hole here in the line and my advice would be to go find the All-Star Game video and watch for yourself. Broadway star Menzel is the type of singer to hold notes long, but the length she held them for in the 1:59 All-Star Game performance seemed as long as they needed to be held for the song itself. That little period of time combined with the rigidity of Super Bowl kickoff schedule and Menzel’s probable fear of being watched by forty zillion Homo Sapiens should have this song coming in right around the 2:00:00 mark.

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