Top Prop Betting Picks for Week 3's NFL Betting Action

Matthew Jordan

Thursday, September 18, 2014 8:12 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 18, 2014 8:12 PM UTC

Check out my Week 3 quarterback special props elsewhere here on the site. Now I will look at some of the remaining Bovada NFL special props for this week.

While I did very well on the QB specials for Week 2, things weren't so great on the other specials. I leaned 'over' six running backs with at least 100 yards and only four did so. I also liked 'over' 6.5 games with at least one team scoring 30 points. Alas, only six did. So close on that. Buffalo had 29 in its 19-point win over Miami and Chicago had 28 in its eight-point win over the 49ers. I did recommend taking yes on Cleveland's Josh Gordon playing at least one game this season and his suspension has been reduced. He will play in Week 11. I also liked a team that finished last in its division last year to finish first in 2014. Two I mentioned, Buffalo and Houston, lead their divisions so I'm feeling good about that, especially the Texans in the AFC South with Indianapolis at 0-2

How Many Sacks Will the Jaguars Allow in Week 3: 'over/under' 3
Both options are at -115 on the NFL odds board. Why this prop? Because Jacksonville gave up a whopping 10 sacks of Chad Henne in last week's blowout loss to Washington, and that Redskins defense isn't exactly the 1985 Chicago Bears. It was the most by Washington since sacks became an official stat in 1982 and marked the seventh time since the turn of the century that an NFL team has recorded at least 10 sacks in a game. The Jags offensive line is terrible, for sure, but Henne also holds on to the ball too long. In Week 1, Henne was sacked three times by the Eagles. This week the Jaguars host the Colts. Without the suspended/injured Robert Mathis, Indy is a terrible pass-rushing team. It has one sack thus far.
NFL Pick: Probably end up a push but lean 'under' for your NFL picks


How Many Points Will the Panthers Allow in the First Half: 'over/under' 9
Interesting stat about Carolina: It hasn't allowed a first-quarter point yet or scored one. The Panthers haven't given up a first-half point yet at all (but have scored some). This total seems shockingly high because the Lions scored just seven all game last week in Charlotte, and they are way better offensively than Pittsburgh, which visits Carolina on Sunday. The Steelers managed only six points last week in Baltimore. 
NFL Pick: 'under.'


Will the Seahawks Allow at least 30 points in a Game the Rest of the Regular Season?
Yes is -150 and no at +110. This prop is in the wake of Seattle giving up 30 in last week's nine-point loss in San Diego. The Seahawks gave up 30 just once in 2013, a loss in Indianapolis. No one else really came that close. This prop could end as soon as Sunday as Denver visits in a Super Bowl rematch. If Denver doesn't do it, I don't see Seattle allowing 30 at home. Thus the other best chances are likely Week 5 at Washington, Week 13 at San Francisco or, the main one, Week 14 at Philadelphia. 
NFL Pick: yes.


How Many Winless Teams Will There be After Week 3: 'over/under' 3.5
There are currently seven and we are guaranteed at least one won't be (barring a tie) as Indianapolis visits Jacksonville on Sunday. I am presuming the winless Bucs lost on Thursday night. The Giants are 2-point home dogs to Houston and could win. The Saints are -10 at home vs. Minnesota and absolutely will win. The Raiders are +14 at New England and absolutely will lose. The Chiefs are +4 at Miami and could win if Jamaal Charles plays. 
NFL Pick: 'under.'


Will Any Team That Started 0-2 Make the Playoffs?
Yes is -250 and no +170. I'm sure you have read by now that less than 12 percent of 0-2 teams make it since 1990, when the NFL playoff field expanded. If you take yes here, realistically  you are banking on the Saints and Colts. I don't see the other five winless clubs reaching the postseason.
NFL Pick: yes.

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