We offer up our top NFL picks for a few of this season's player awards. From Offensive Rookie of hte Year to Passing Leader, here is how we are locking in our bets.
The reigning NFL MVP Aaron Rodgers is projected to put up big numbers once again this season but expectations took a small dip according to at least one measure following the season ending torn ACL suffered by his top target Jordy Nelson. Rodgers went from the outright favorite to win the NFL MVP to second in line behind Indianapolis Colts quarterback Andrew Luck following the injury and while some will argue that makes him a more valuable bet with more of the onus on him the reality is a lot can change in the NFL on a week-to-week basis and that has to be taken in to account when narrowing down the best bets for every NFL future player prop. Here is a look at four of the most popular player prop categories including our best bets for each one.
The most interesting aspect of Rodgers becoming the second favorite to win MVP behind Luck is that he went from +500 odds to +400 odds to win the award this season. The reality is that while Rodgers might have a tougher time beating out Luck for the award the fact that he is without Nelson might lead to him getting even more credit if he is somehow able to make last year’s statistics without his top target. Luck is listed at +300 odds to win the award while Peyton Manning is listed at +1000 odds and Ben Roethlisberger at +1400 odds. Adrian Peterson and Tom Brady look like the best sleeper picks with both players listed at +2000 to win the award according to some sports books while those looking for a deeper sleeper pick might be interested in taking Jamaal Charles or Philip Rivers at +2500 odds. Luck might be the favorite to win the award but the consensus is that Rodgers is still the best choice for our NFL picks.
Best Bet: Aaron Rodgers +400
Offensive Rookie Of The Year
The projections for NFL Offensive Rookie of the Year are a lot heavier at the top with Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback Jameis Winston, San Diego Chargers running back Melvin Gordon and Oakland Raiders wide receiver Amari Cooper all listed as the co-favorites according to one book at +600 odds followed by Tennessee Titans quarterback Marcus Mariota at +800. We have certainly seen enough from the two rookie quarterbacks this preseason to think they deserve an early edge and while Mariota has considerable talent there is no doubt that Winson has the better pieces around him and plays in the easier division. Gordon and Cooper have the potential to make major impacts this season but we like Winston for this year’s NFL OROY.
Best Bet: Jameis Winston +600
Most Passing Yards
Luck and Rodgers are also listed at 1-2 to win this category as well at NFL Odds of +300 and +600 respectively but Luck ranked third in the NFL last season while Rodgers ranked seventh so there might be better value looking somewhere else. Drew Brees and Ben Roethlisberger tied for the league lead in passing yards last season with 4,952 and both quarterbacks are listed at +700 odds according to some books. Matt Ryan is also in the mix at +700 odds after finishing fifth in the NFL last season with 4,694 passing yards while Eli Manning might be the best sleeper pick at +1200 odds after bouncing back from a slow start last season and ranking sixth in the league with 4,410 passing yards. Manning might be worth a small play but we like Roethlisberger to continue his rise this season and lead the NFL in passing yards.
Best Bet: Ben Roethlisberger +700
Most Reception Yards
It only makes sense that Antonio Brown is the favorite to lead the NFL in this category after he did it last season when he had 129 catches for 1,698 yards so it’s no surprise that he is listed as the favorite at +500 odds. However, Martavis Bryant has really emerged as a key piece in the Steelers offense while Markus Wheaton and tight end Heath Miller combined for 119 receptions and with defenses keying in on Brown he could see his catch total dip. Julio Jones and Odell Beckham Jr. are also among the favorites at +600 and +700 odds respectively and certainly deserve to be but it’s a surprise to us that Dez Bryant isn’t listed higher as some books have him as high as +800 odds. Bryant’s 1,320 receiving yards last season were more than 300 fewer than Brown and the eighth-most in the NFL but with DeMarco Murray gone there will be a much greater onus on him to step up and this could be the year where Bryant sets the standard for the NFL with an absolute monster season.
Best Bet: Dez Bryant +800