One of my most successful series is back for 2014! Even though we only went 1-2 on opening night, we cashed our parlay to salvage the evening. Now heading into Sunday, the player prop value from bet365 is high. Here are some of my favorite NFL player props.
Fred Jackson TD Scored
The Bills are going through some things right now. They are selling the team, the coach reportedly got into a shouting match with the front office, and they have to play the Bears in Chicago to open the season. However even with all of that, Fred Jackson’s touchdown odds from bet365 are fantastic. At +120, he has a lot of value against the worst rushing defense from last season. Jackson will come into the game on third down and likely in the red zone, and with how badly EJ Manuel might look, the Bills are going to be forced to run the ball in between the 20s, as well as in the red zone.
This gives Jackson a nice boost, and even with how bad the Bills’ passing game projects to be this season, they are still going to be able to run on the Bears. Their only shot at winning this game will be to keep the Bears’ offense off the field, and to do that, they’ll need to run the ball. Take Jackson to score a touchdown.
NFL Pick: Yes (+120)
Heath Miller TD Scored
If you’re noticing a theme of Week 1, it’s my old guys touchdown week. Heath Miller and Jackson are both well into their 30s, but maybe that’s why the sportsbooks are writing them both off this week. The Browns’ defense is good, but they aren’t that good. Plus Miller is Ben Roethlisberger's only big receiving threat. Antonio Brown is short and Markus Wheaton is not yet trustable in the red zone. That leaves Miller in a nice spot to score this week against the Browns.
Last season Miller only scored one touchdown in 14 games, but don’t let that sway you away from him scoring a touchdown in Week 1. Last year the Browns gave up eight touchdowns to opposing tight ends, and while that isn’t a lot, it isn’t s few either.
NFL Pick: Yes (+150)
Ryan Tannehill total passing yards
Finally we have the Dolphins’ young quarterback Ryan Tannehill, who is going up against the Patriots this week. New England has one of the most improved defenses in the NFL this season, especially in the secondary. With that being said, Tannehill’s total for passing yards is way too high for going up against New England.
Last season Tannehill had two games against the Pats that were on the complete opposite ends of the spectrum. In his first meeting with the Pats in New England, he only threw for 192 yards two touchdowns and two picks. However in the final meeting, Tannehill threw for 312 yards, three touchdowns and no picks.
Subsequently that was the last touchdowns Tannehill would throw that year, because the Dolphins collapsed right after that game to miss the playoffs. With that kind of inconsistency, and with the vastly improved Patriots secondary, I doubt Tannehill throws for more than 255.5 yards, which is his over/under from bet365. For your NFL picks take the under on this prop.
NFL Pick: UNDER 255.5 passing yards (-120)