Here is an expert NFL handicapper's rundown of the entire slate for Week 5 complete with our over-under NFL picks for each and every game.
The ‘over’ enjoyed a 10-3 edge in week 4 NFL betting, resulting in a perceptible shift in the overarching season’s totals with the 'over' inching ahead 32-29 after four weeks. What will week 5 NFL deliver?
Week 4 Recap
Last week we enjoyed a pretty successful stab at over-under NFL picks, going 11-2 with our only misses being a) predicting the Over 50.5 for the Eagles and Niners before they settled on a 26-21 score, and b) predicting the Under 41.0 for the Dolphins and Raiders before they settled on a 38-14 score in London. Handicapping what happens on the field isn’t easy and getting over-under NFL picks right is challenging. But we’re brave enough to take another stab at it this week with our full slate of NFL picks. Let’s see how we do this time.
Vikings vs. Packers O/U 47.5
Teddy Bridgewater or Christian Ponder? Who will start? Better question, does it matter? Vikings participated in the highest scoring game on Sunday when they beat the Falcons 41-28. True, Bridgewater played well, but Falcons’ defense isn’t exactly Fort Knox is it. It’s one of the lowest ranked in the league. Packers beat the Bears 38-17, the first game where they looked balanced on both sides of the ball particularly in the second half. Rodgers’ high-octane offense put up the scores, and while Jay Cutler and the Bears did get away with over 302 yards passing offense defense held the Bears to just 56 yards rushing on 18 attempts and rendered them pointless in the second half. By contrast, Vikings gave up 411 yards of total offense to the Falcons and Matt Ryan put up three touchdowns. One has to believe the r-e-l-a-x-ed Aaron Rogers will have a field day at the expense of the Vikings at the Lambeau.
NFL Picks: Over 47.5
Falcons vs. Giants O/U 50.0
Confidence in the Falcons has wavered since their 41-28 defeat to the Vikings behind a rookie quarterback in week 4 NFL betting. The main criticism: defensively, they’re a suspect and have trouble taking care of the ball. That’s something Eli Manning and the west coast offense will look to capitalise on now that it’s clicking. Last week, the Giants put up 45 points against the Redskins on the road, all while holding the Redskins offense to just 14 points. That said the Falcons are second in the league in passing offense, averaging 322.3 passing yards per game and 32.8 points per game. Giants aren’t too far behind with an average of 25.8 yards per game to 231.3 passing yards per game. Everything about this game suggests a winning NFL pick based on the 'over', a shootout even between Manning and Ryan.
NFL Picks: Over 50.0
Ravens vs. Colts O/U 48.0
Courtesy of two lightweights – Jaguars and Titans – the Colts are first in the league in passing offense with 326.0 yards per game and an average of 34.0 points. Ravens have lit up the scoreboard since a shock opening defeat to the Cincinnati Bengals in week 1, hanging 87 points on their last three opponents, including a 38-10 win over the Panthers heralded for a stout defense. Everything about this game suggests a shootout between two elite quarterbacks: Joe Flacco, who’s looking to prove he can recapture his Super Bowl winning form; and Andrew Luck, who’s eager to gain his first win over a legitimate team and quarterback.
NFL Picks: Over 48.0
Bills +7.0 vs. Lions - O/U 44.0
Bills’ offense is set for disruption. E.J. Manuel is benched. In his stead, Kyle Orton is set to start. That can’t be good for the Bills O-line, especially against a Lions team that is 3-1 SU and ATS, tough to beat at home and boasts a stalwart defense. The Lions are solid on both sides of the ball, with an offense that ranks 7th in passing with 276.0 yards per game and defense that is second against the pass (186.5 allowed) and sixth against the rush (80.8). They are 1-3 over-under through four games, against some pretty good teams so far – including Green Bay Packers, Giants and Panthers.
NFL Picks: Under 44.0
Bears vs. Panthers O/U 45.5
Green Bay Packers exposed the Bears for the upstarts they were through the first few weeks of NFL betting while the Ravens exposed all the glaring weaknesses on the Panthers bench. These two sides, still searching for their respective identity, collide in week 5 NFL betting. Bears offense can light up but their defense is porous, not to mention Jay Cutler had a forgettable second half in Green Bay that shook his confidence. It remains to be seen whether that form spills forth. Panthers’ offense really relies on Cam Newton, his mood from game-to-game. He can blow hot and cold from time to time (last week’s lacklustre effort against the Ravens is case-and-point). This game could go either way, therefore, in our opinion. Consider Panthers have been averaging just 18.3 points per game and they have home advantage, while the Bears have been averaging 23.0 points per game, we feel this game could go just under 45.5.
NFL Picks: Under 45.5
Browns vs. Titans O/U 44.0
Odds are yet to be released on this game; too many uncertainties are floating about particularly where the Titans’ centre is concerned – will Jake Locker start or will the Titans revert to the lesser desirable alternatives. Based on current form, it might not make much of a difference in the broad spectrum. Browns are coming off a bye and they take a 1-2 SU record behind some strong play to Tennessee. They are averaging almost 25 points per game (they’ve held Steelers, Ravens and Saints to just a field goal or less), which augurs well against a Titans side that has been leaking points at a frightening rate. The 44-point line seems too low so take the over on your NFL picks.
NFL Picks: Over 44.0
Texans vs. Cowboys O/U 46.0
While Cowboys boast the 20th pass offense, they have the highest-ranked rush offense in the league, which averages 165.0 yards per game. In four games, the Cowboys have accounted for 115 points, which is an average of 28.8 points. (In their last two, they broke the 30-point barrier). To counter, they have a weak defense that leaks almost as many points on average (21.5) as offense puts up over the course of four games. Both the Texans and Cowboys have gone 2-2 in over-under betting through four games. Texans are intrinsically defensive-minded, but both their road games have gone over this season – largely down to inconsistencies of Ryan Fitzpatrick. This game could go either way, but if DeMarco Murray continues to lead the way in rushing against a Texans side that is 24th against the run, the Cowboys could have another big day on the scoreboard this Sunday.
NFL Picks: Over 46.0
Steelers vs. Jaguars O/U 46.5
Jacksonville Jaguars are a shambles this season, outmatched in every aspect of the field. Sure, Blake Bortles impressed in his debut. However, he can only do so much alone and very little if defense continues to be a liability. Jaguars have leaked no less than 30-points per game and twice their generosity seemed to have no end, allowing over 40-points. When the vogue NFL pick is the 'over' on a Jaguars’ game, this total-line does seem low.
NFL Picks: Over 46.5
Rams vs. Eagles O/U 47.5
It’s not hard to see the Eagles hang 30 points in this game when they’ve scored 122 points through four games (which yields a 30.5 average). Through the first three games, they scored 101 points – only last week did offense sputter badly and the Eagles combined for just 21 points. As a result, they are down to 6th in passing offense with 280.5 yards per game. In every other aspect of the game, the Eagles rank low in the league – a messy defense ranked 23rd in the league against the pass and 26th against the rush. The Rams are in a mess period, with no viable centre as the quarterback drama heats up. They have a 9th ranked passing offense that accounts for 264.3 yards per game but converts for only an average of 18.7 points. Against an Eagles defense that struggles against the pass, the Rams could account for that amount, if not more.
NFL Picks: Over 47.5
Bucs vs. Saints O/U 48.5
It will take a huge defensive account by the Bucs in New Orleans to keep this total below the 48.5 line. The Bucs are better under Mike Glennon and after a big 27-24 upset over Pittsburgh last week. But they are playing their third straight road game in New Orleans, a right hostile place traditionally. Saints are mired in all sorts of trouble right now behind a 1-3 record. They are desperate for a big win before they go into a bye week. This has the whiff of a shootout, if not a blowout by the Saints.
NFL Picks: Over 48.5
Cardinals vs. Broncos O/U 49.0
Peyton Manning and the O-line aren’t as lethal as last season while the rebuilt defense has been struggling. Cardinals, on the other hand, have a bit of quarterback dilemma, controversy brewing: If Carson Palmer is fit and ready to play on Sunday, do they go back to him (Palmer is 1-5 against Broncos lifetime), or stick with backup Drew Stanton who won the last two games to improve Cardinals to a 3-0 SU record? Dilemma. Dilemma. On another note, both the Broncos and Cardinals are coming off byes – this could be good for the Broncos as they work out their issues on both sides of the ball. Cardinals’ defense is good enough to give Peyton Manning some headaches, but we know how good Manning is when he’s at his best.
NFL Picks: Over 49.0 at Sports Interaction
Chiefs vs. 49ers O/U 44.5
Both the Kansas City Chiefs and San Francisco 49ers are 2-2 going into week 5 NFL betting. Odds makers have rolled out a rather high spread on this game of 6.5-points but countered with a rather low total-line of 44.5 considering the Chiefs’ scored a total of 75 points in their last two games. Alex Smith is coming to face his old team and former backup QB Colin Kaepernick, who played himself into the starting job at Smith’s expense. There’s not a lot that Smith doesn’t know about the Niners, particularly their stalwart defense, which is probably receiving all the respect with these NFL betting lines. At first glance, the under does look appealing, but with Alex Smith looking to make a point and Colin Kaepernick looking to validate the franchise’s decision to stick with him, this could be a competitive shootout between two offenses that can light up when they are of the mind to.
NFL Picks: Over 44.5
Jets vs. Chargers O/U 43.5
Jets are trending negatively this season. They have lost three in a row. Offense looks messy despite boasting some attractive weapons largely down to poor quarterback play. On the bright side, defense is no slouch – first in the league opposing the rush and tenth against the pass. Chargers are hitting their stride with three straight wins and some solid play on both sides of the ball. They could find it tricky though to get much going against a Jets outfit that is desperate to stop the bleed.
NFL Picks: Under 43.5
Bengals vs. Patriots O/U 46.0
Cincinnati Bengals are unassuming on both sides of the ball, even-handed on the stats with a middle ranked offense and defense after three games. The ‘under’ enjoyed the edge when Bengals took on quality opposition and elite quarterbacks – Baltimore and Atlanta. Patriots laid an egg on Monday when they lost to the Chiefs. It was a debacle in which Brady spent way too much time grazing grass. That only means one thing: Tom Brady and the offense have a lot to prove, as does defense when they host the Bengals at home. It won’t be easy against a tough Bengals defense but the Patriots do have the top (shocking) defense against the pass, holding opponents to just 185.5 yards per game.
NFL Picks: Under 46.0
Seahawks vs. Redskins O/U 45.5
Seattle Seahawks are still the best in the league, with the best defense in the minds of many NFL bettors. Questions were raised about Washington in their Thursday defeat to the Giants; namely, how good is Kirk Cousins really. It’s too soon to tell whether that is going to be the beginning of a trend or if it was a one-off, a bad day. A date with the stingy Seahawk defense and one of the best quarterbacks this side of the last decade will determine one way or another.
NFL Picks: Under 45.5