We look at the over-under odds for each and every game in Week 4, serving up our choice NFL picks along the way. Going into week 4, over-under betting sees the latter slightly edging ahead at 21-26. Will this trend hold or will we see the over pull ahead?
Giants vs. Redskins O/U 45.0
Last week, Giants’ offense finally materialised as Ben McAdoo had always envisioned it would. Manning had his best game this season; mainly, he avoided turnovers. Giants are averaging 19.3 points per game, which is a low number but also almost entirely representative of their first two games on the season when they visibly struggled moving forward. If Manning and the O-line repeat their success in week 3 here, that number is only going to swell. Kirk Cousins, meanwhile, seems to be fitting into the starting role under Washington’s new offensive scheme nicely. Actually, ever since Cousins came in to play, Washington’s offense has climbed the charts, averaging 27 points per game. They are also second in the league with 444.0 total yards per game and third in the league with 308.7 passing yards per game. All things being considered, the total seems low for this game so we recommend the Over 45.0.
NFL Picks: Take the Over 45.0
Bills vs. Texans O/U 41.0
This is a tough game to call in more ways than one because there are legitimate questions at centre for both teams. E.J. Manuel’s ability to propel offense and create scoring opportunities is inconsistent. Bills offense isn’t good at all, sitting 28th in the league and averaging 191.3 passing yards per game and 20.7 points. Meanwhile, Ryan Fitzpatrick came back down to earth last week against the Giants as he deposited his worst account that brought back sepia-toned memories of his propensity for turnovers and other unpleasant stats. If he reverts back to the form that saw him lead the Texans to two straight wins to open the season, he could capitalise on the suspect Bills. Texans are 20th in the league averaging 212.3 passing yards per game and 21.3 points per game. This matchup is sneaky and feels somewhat even – so it could go either way, but only just sneaking under or over by a few points.
NFL Picks: Take the Under 41.0
Panthers vs. Ravens O/U 40.5
Clearly, odds makers are expecting another low-scoring affair when these two sides collide. Intrinsically, both the Panthers and Ravens are defensive-minded. They do however have offensive weapons that can light up on any given Sunday. Very little separates these two sides in passing yards – Panthers are 10th with 259.7 while the Ravens are 13th with 237.3, all while both are averaging about 21.0 points per game. In a matchup that features two very good quarterbacks, there’s the chance that the offense will play up to their level. That’s why we feel this game could against NFL betting expectations and over the lowly 40.5 mark.
NFL Picks: Take the Over 40.5
Lions vs. Jets O/U 44.5
Detroit Lions boast the sixth best passing offense with 277.3 yards but they are averaging just 20-ish points per game. They have the third-best defense against the pass, which allows just 180.7 yards per game. As well, they have the second-best defence against the rush, which is allowing just 63.7 yards per game. If defense rises to the occasion, Geno Smith and his O-line will have a tough time, even though they are modestly good, sitting 18th in the league with 218.7 yards of passing offense and 2nd with 157.7 rushing yards. Jets defense is no slouch though as they are first opposing the rush, holding teams down to just 55.0 yards per game, and they are ninth opposing the pass, holding teams down to 213.3 yards per game. This has the feeling of an under game.
NFL Picks: Take the Under 44.5
Packers vs. Bears O/U 50.0
Two potential lethal offenses collide in this game, all while supported by a rather suspect defensive casts. The problem with both teams is that offense hasn’t been consistent from week-to-week, game-to-game or quarter-to-quarter. If both these sides can maintain a high-level of attack throughout, this game should go over comfortably. Packers have scored more than 30-points this season, which is in tune to expectations. Bears have been consistently scoring over 20 points so far. That said, it won’t surprise us though if either Aaron Rodgers or Jay Cutler have one of those duds that brings the total down – Rodgers had a forgettable outing last week when the Packers lost to the Lions 19-7, a week after he led the Packers to a 31-24 victory over the Jets.
NFL Picks: Take the Over 50.0
Dolphins vs. Raiders O/U 41.0
The Dolphins and Raiders have been struggling on offense this season. Dolphins are boasting a two-game losing streak while the Raiders are winless so far. Both sides are averaging less than 20-points a game – Dolphins at 19.3 and the Raiders at a lowly 12.3. This game has under written all over it for our NFL picks.
NFL Picks: Take the Under 41.0
Buccaneers vs. Steelers O/U 45.5
Tampa Bay Buccaneers alone are capable of giving up all those points, as we already know. After giving up just 39 points in two games, the Bucs unravelled against the Falcons on Thursday last week, giving up almost double those points in a 56-14 defeat. To date, the Bucs have allowed 95 points against them, which yields a whopping 31.66 points on average. To counter that, they are averaging a paltry 15.0 points per game. Given those trends, the total does seem rather low. Consider the Steelers haven’t exactly been consistent, it explains why the odds makers have set a low total. Steelers opened the season with a 30-27 win over the Browns, only to succumb to a 26-6 defeat to Baltimore. In Carolina last week, however, they perked up again to blow the Panthers 37-19. Would the real Steelers please stand up?
NFL Picks: Take the Over 45.5
Titans vs. Colts O/U 46.0
After Andrew Luck’s tremendous account in the Colts’ first win on the season, a 44-10 victory over the Jacksonville Jaguars, one has the sense the Colts alone could cover that total. The Colts have scored more than 30 points in each and every game, all while conceding a considerable amount. The Titans started the season well enough by upsetting the Chiefs 26-10, but since then they’ve lost 26-10 to the Cowboys and 33-7 to the Bengals. This total seems rather low in our opinion.
NFL Picks: Take the Over 46.0
Jaguars vs. Chargers O/U 45.0
Jacksonville Jaguars have conceded more than 30 points in each and every game. In fact, they are allowing 40-points per game. The Chargers, who are riding a two-game winning streak after beating the Seattle Seahawks and the Buffalo Bills, should have a field day with the Jaguars non-existent defense. If the Chargers can score 30-points against arguably the best defense in the league, they should have no problem doing the same, if not better here.
NFL Picks: Take the Over 45.0
Falcons vs. Vikings O/U 47.0
Teddy Bridgewater is slated to start for the Minnesota Vikings after Matt Cassel got the hook last week. As far as starts go, he’s getting no favours as he prepares to take on the top offense in the league. Matt Ryan is putting up some staggering numbers – he’s second on the offensive leaders list with 965 yards tallied, a mere 13 yards less than league-leading Nick Foles. Ryan is also averaging a league-leading 8.69 yards per pass attempt and has seven touchdowns in just three games. Atlanta Falcons have the top passing offense with 333.7 yards per game and they are averaging 34.3 points per game, albeit heavily skewed by their 56-14 victory over Tampa last week.
NFL Picks: Take the Over 45.0
Eagles vs. 49ers O/U 50.5
Nick Foles and the Eagles bring their high-octane offense to the west coast when they take on the San Francisco 49ers, who’ve been struggling on offense of late. Despite San Francisco’s struggles on offense and Colin Kaepernick’s inability to score a touchdown lately, many NFL betting enthusiasts expect this game to go over 50.5. The Niners offense should lift off against an Eagles side that is 30th in the league defending the pass, allowing 280.3 yards per game. While the Eagles will do what they do best, keep on scoring no matter the score on the board.
NFL Picks: Take the Over 50.5
Saints vs. Cowboys O/U 53.5
Both the Saints and the Cowboys have plenty weapons on offense, but a total that sits as high as 53.5 on the NFL odds seems just too high, don’t you think. Then again, neither side has a great defense. The Cowboys are after a 34-31 win over the Rams last week, a side that boasts an unheralded centre in Austin Davis. And the Saints did lose their first two games – 37-34 in OT to the Falcons and 26-24 to the Cleveland Browns.
NFL Picks: Take the Over 53.5
Patriots vs. Chiefs O/U 44.5
Tom Brady slung just 16 points on a Raiders side that continues to grapple with its identity. Alex Smith and the Chiefs are after their first win on the season, beating the Dolphins on the road 34-15. Both these offenses, not to mention quarterbacks, have a lot to prove in this game to quell their critics.
NFL Picks: Take the Over 44.5