Top NFL Picks for Week 6 Biggest Spreads

Matthew Jordan

Sunday, October 12, 2014 10:00 AM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 12, 2014 10:00 AM UTC

A 2-3 record in Week 5 on the biggest spread picks, which isn't acceptable. Think I am done backing the Saints as they were very fortunate to win at home in OT as the only double-digit favorites. Here are the Pinnacle top NFL spread odds for Week 6.

Denver Broncos vs. New York Jets (+8.5)
I looked at this game in a full preview Monday here at SBR. Then the line was 9. I have seen this at other sportsbooks -- Bovada, for example -- where it's 10.5. Nothing much has changed my mind since Monday. Well, maybe one thing. I wrote then Jets coach Rex Ryan's job was very tenuous and on Tuesday he said he does expect to be fired if the Jets don't get things turned around. Ryan got a multiyear extension after last season's surprising 8-8 finish, but it's only fully guaranteed through next season. So could the Jets rally around their beleaguered coach? Could Denver's internal clocks be off playing an 11 a.m. Denver time start to this one? Might the Broncos be looking ahead to next week's potential Super Bowl preview with San Francisco? Bovada is offering an interesting prop on whether Manning breaks Brett Favre's career TD record this week. Peyton Manning would need six to do so. It's a +1200 long shot. You can also bet on which half it might happen in each of the next two games.

Free NFL pick: At 10.5 as at Bovada's NFL odds I would lean the points. Not at this number. The Broncos have covered nine of their past 12 at sportsbooks against teams with a losing record.

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Dallas Cowboys vs. Seattle Seahawks (-8)
You can probably write it down in marker that this game will feature the most rushing attempts of any in Week 6. The Cowboys have been a huge surprise at 4-1 on the back of DeMarco Murray, who has to be in the NFL MVP conversation. His 670 rushing yards are lapping the rest of the field and he is on pace to break Eric Dickerson's record of 2,105 in 1984. Murray would tie an NFL record with his sixth straight 100-yard game to open a season. Don't count on it as Seattle is No. 1 against the rush at 62.3 yards per game. The Seahawks have allowed 249 yards on 95 carries, a scant 2.6 yards per carry. The longest rush against that defense is 16 yards. On the flip side, the Seahawks are No. 1 in rushing and Dallas was gashed on the ground last week by Houston. About the only thing in the Cowboys' favor is it's a short week for the Seahawks.

Free NFL pick: Seattle. It has covered five straight NFL lines at home against teams with a winning record on the road.

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San Diego Chargers vs. Oakland Raiders (-7)
Poor Oakland. In four games, the Raiders haven't totaled 1,110 yards yet. They are averaging 12.8 points and have yet to top 14. Is Tony Sparano a miracle worker? He will need to be to possibly avoid a 0-16 season. He is the Raiders' interim coach with Dennis Allen fired after Oakland's loss in London in Week 4. He has zero shot of the full-time job as the Raiders are aiming high for guys like Mike Holmgren (already talked to him) and Jon Gruden. Sparano says the team will run more under his watch. Is that good thing? The Raiders are 32nd in rushing at 61.5 yards per game. The Chargers look like a major Super Bowl threat in winning four straight, all by at least nine points. They don't throw the ball downfield at all yet are tied for third with 21 pass plays of 20 or more yards.

NFL free pick: Chargers. This line is at 7.5 at other sportsbooks so jump on the 7 before it moves higher at Pinnacle. San Diego has been a bettors' best friend lately, covering 10 of its past 11 on NFL odds dating to last year. That includes six straight on the road.

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Carolina Panthers vs. Cincinnati Bengals (-6.5)
I have a rule that I only consider "big" spreads to be at least a touchdown, but as of this writing there were only three games in that category so I am adding this game as I have seen it at 7 points on NFL odds at other sportsbooks. This is another one where the half point could make a huge difference. This opened at 7 just about everywhere but has dropped, presumably, because star Bengals receiver A.J. Green won't play after aggravating a toe injury in practice. He could miss multiple weeks. That's a loss, no doubt. However, the Bengals haven't lost a home regular-season game since 2012 and have been dominant there since about midway through last season. Cincinnati also will want to make a statement after getting blown out Sunday night in New England.

NFL free pick: Take the Bengals for your NFL picks. They have covered 13 of the past 16 at home on NFL lines. Cincinnati also has covered the NFL odds in six of its past seven after a loss. 

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