In theory, our choices for NFL selections, both against the spread and for teasers, become harder with very large numbers posted on enough different games for Week 15.
For example, take New Orleans at -16.5 over the New York Jets. This is no easy choice for NFL picks. The same is true for six-point teasers. If you like the Saints, reducing them to -10.5 does offer some value going through lesser key numbers of 13 and 14, yet ideally we would prefer to be under 10. On the other hand, the Jets at +22.5 might also be intriguing, but New York has one turnover that Drew Brees converts into a touchdown and that little 'safe haven' is erased.
Last week we missed out on a sweep of four-team teaser, but we still hit on combos of two and three-teamers, moving our teaser record to a still highly profitable 31-5 and 38-10 since we started. Having to dig a little deeper to find the best value, but here are this week's selections.Detroit From -5.5 to +0.5 vs. Chicago (Saturday)
The Lions are still chasing playoff berth but are hardly an imposing team, with a score differential of +9. With Detroit lowered as a favorite vs. a potentially dangerous Chicago club, we picked up the added value of just needing the Lions to win the game. The Bears have long been known as a terrible December road underdog, and even in whipping Cincinnati last week in their last 49 road contests in the final four weeks of the season they gave been outscored by average by 7.8 points a game.Philadelphia From -7.5 to -1.5 at N.Y. Giants
No Carson Wentz means a much lower figure on Philadelphia, which should work to our advantage. Nick Foles is about as good as any team could hope to have as a backup, especially on a top level squad. From teaser perspective, this is an ideal situation, passing through key numbers of 7, 6 and 3, and the only way we lose if the Eagles win is by a point. (There has only been 5 one-point outcomes this season.) Invariably, the Giants will make a mistake or two and Philly cashes in.Baltimore From -7 to -1 at Cleveland
Seemed to have caught a break against the NFL odds when Baltimore was lowered from -9 to -7 on the regular spread line. This provides us an opportunity to take the Ravens at a great number against winless Cleveland. Though Baltimore lost last week to Pittsburgh, it outplayed the Steelers the majority of the contest and only a white hot Ben Roethlisberger took down the Ravens. Cleveland does not possess Pittsburgh's skills and is being beaten by 10.6 PPG this year.Atlanta From -6 to Pick at Tampa Bay (Monday)
The Falcons still have a chance to win the NFC South with three division confrontations remaining. They will seek a three-game sweep starting on Monday in Tampa. For this teaser, much like our other selections this week, this is basically money line action, just needing Atlanta to win. Have to say, I like our chances with the Buccaneers being outscored by 9.7 PPG as an underdog in 2017.