If picking teasers were as easy as we have made it look this season, sportsbooks would not allow them or cut way back on the payouts. But trust us, it is never this simple and it involves hard work.
Case in point: this week's slate of games. When reviewing all the NFL odds in the usual fashion, the initial run through did not come up with four plays immediately. That meant having to dig deeper, find better information and try to place the odds in our favor as best as possible for NFL picks. This is how we were able for the fourth time in two months to nail down a four-team teaser and all the accompanying three and two-teamers we assemble with them. Since Week 3, we have elevated our record to 35-9 and, of late, 28-4 on the teaser line.
Here are my four choices for Week 14.Cincinnati From -6 to Pick vs. Chicago
It is a given Cincinnati is going to be immensely disappointed after blowing 17-0 lead at home against Pittsburgh on Monday. Fortunately for the Bengals, they are playing Chicago, who has averaged 14.3 PPG in its last half dozen. With this teaser, we can limit our risk by lowering the Bengals down to a Pick, which means we just have to win the game. With our research, we also found Cincy is 47-8 on the teaser line against the NFC in most recent contests.Seattle From +2.5 to +8.5 at Jacksonville
Jacksonville has the best defense in the NFL' however, Seattle is hardly a pauper, ranked in the Top 10 in nearly every defensive category. In spite of how good the Jaguars defense is, Russell Wilson is a unique talent who does not commit many turnovers. Blake Bortles throughout his career has shown he will makes miscues when or if the running game stalls, which is a possibility against the Seahawks defense. Plus, this is one of my favorite numbers for teasers, going past key numbers 3, 6 and 7, and Pete Carroll teams are 15-0 on the teaser line vs. defenses permitting 17 or fewer points in the second half of the season.Arizona From +3 to +9 vs. Tennessee
Similar to the game above, we pass through some rather important numbers, this time with Arizona. When looking at AFC South co-leader Tennessee, they are hardly impressive. Of the Titans' past five victories, only one has been by more than four points and that came last week when they scored on a rare 75-yard touchdown run by Derrick Henry with a mere 46 seconds seconds remaining to beat Houston 24-13. Tennessee has lost by nearly 10 points a game when on the road after gaining 6.5 or more yards a play in previous outing.Pittsburgh From -5 to +1 vs. Baltimore
Pittsburgh is on a short week, off an extremely physical battle vs. Cincinnati and lost its best defensive player to injury in linebacker Ryan Shazier. Next up is a similar type confrontation with Baltimore, but at least this one will be at home. These two have battled through the years with countless tight games and this figures to be more of the same. However, just like on Monday this teaser requires the Steelers to just win the game and they are 28-2 on the teaser line at home vs. divisional foes.