Top 6-Point Teaser Bets for Week 10: Bolts Own AFC South

Doug Upstone

Thursday, November 9, 2017 3:36 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 9, 2017 3:36 PM UTC

As I have done in the past here, I've settled in and over the last month have nailed a series of two, three and four-team NFL teasers with a 13-3 record and on the season now reside at 20-8.

For long time readers of this article, I do the same thing every week against the NFL odds, I seek the best value in the right numbers. For those just reading this for the first time, this is what I mean:

On six-point teasers on sides, we not only want to make our NFL picks advantageous, we want them placed properly against key numbers. That means whenever possible we want to pass through at least two and mostly three key football numbers like 3, 6, 7 and 10. This is where a lot of final scores end in professional football and you want be on the right side of the numbers.

That is why, for example, I am passing on Pittsburgh for a teaser. At -10 from the sportsbooks, being able to tease the Steelers down to -4 is really inviting and a likely winner against Indianapolis. While it is true we are passing through key numbers of 6 and 7, on the road I feel more comfortable if we could teaser this down to -3, giving us the option for a Push, just in case we have a 23-20 final score with Pittsburgh barely winning.

Here are my teaser choices for Sunday.

Green Bay From +6 to +12 at Chicago

If you watched the Monday night contest, Green Bay looked closer to San Francisco than New England. Despite this, with the chance to tease the Packers all the way up to +12, this too good to pass up. While the Chicago defense is much improved, the Bears offense is averaging 16.7 PPG and has only broken 17 points once in last five games. Another key in this teaser is the total of 38. In the last two years when the total has been between 35.5 and 42 points, Chicago has outscored foes by 0.8 PPG.

L.A. Chargers From +3.5 to +9.5 at Jacksonville

In spite of Jacksonville being at home and a much improved team, there is a great deal of sharp money on the visiting Chargers at +3.5. With that in mind, we can further take advantage of this by lifting the Bolts all the way to +9.5. The Chargers' improved run defense in their last three games should be of help, and with Philip Rivers more concerned about protecting the ball that lowers the chances of a cheap touchdown for Jacksonville. Lastly, let's realize the Chargers are mind-numbing 28-4 ATS against the AFC South and a perfect 32-0 on the teaser line.

New England From -7.5 to -1.5 at Denver

This Sunday night teaser speaks for itself. Denver is going to be really fired up off a 0-3 road trip and four consecutive defeats. Being able to take New England down to -1.5 cuts through three key numbers and the only way we lose is if the Patriots win is by the very rare one-point outcome. With a decisive edge at quarterback, we have to like this situation.

Carolina From -9 to -3 vs. Miami

On Monday night, we have this non-conference clash and Carolina is a decided favorite over Miami. The Dolphins offense has been brutal all season long and is scoring an NFL-worst 14.5 PPG -- and chances are they will not do better taking on a Panthers defense that ranks fourth in fewest points allowed at 17.7 PPG. Because the Carolina offense is not always dependable, it helps to pass through a couple of key numbers and my research finds the Panthers are 42-4 against a teaser line vs. teams scoring 17 or less points a game.

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