After last week's satisfying 3-1 NFL teaser record, we killed it during the regular season. Our final record on teasers was 47-13 and we closed on an awesome 40-8 run. Yes, damage control was alerted.
I am going to be the first to admit that betting teasers in the postseason has absolutely nothing to do with what goes on during the regular season. We have fewer games, closer competition -- it is truly a different animal. When looking at the NFL odds, where possible, we still seek the best value, but otherwise, we try and place any particular situation on the best possible value side.
In generating NFL picks for teasers, here are my best Wild-Card selections. Also, because of limitations, I would keep teasers to two-teamers and play combinations or possibly one three-teamer.Kansas City From -9 to -3 vs. Tennessee
The first game of the weekend offers one of my favorites and one we have made a lot of cash on all year. With the Chiefs at -9, we pass through key numbers like 6 and 7 and land on 3. (I would use these for three-teamers. If we get Push, we still have an active two-teamer.) Kansas City has sizable offensive edge against Tennessee and will have a raucous crowd, which could rattle the Titans. Tennessee is one of two playoff teams with a negative score differential. (Buffalo is the other). And when the Titans are off a home win in past 11 games, they are -9.4 in points in the following contest.Atlanta From +6.5 to +12.5 at L.A. Rams
This is really a matter of taste, and both sides could be right. Though plenty of teams have won playoff games with little or no experience, all things being equal you would always prefer to have been through the process. That is the key reason for me to bump up Atlanta. In the process we also pass both 7 and 10 points, which is a benefit. My feeling is if the Falcons can stay even for the first quarter, they can settle this game down and with this many points be in position to cover.Jacksonville From -9 to -3 vs. Buffalo
Frankly, this would appear to be a really bad matchup for Buffalo. The Bills have real offensive limitations, and if top running back LeSean McCoy is limited or cannot go with bum ankle, where does Buffalo turn? Jacksonville can really deal the deuces. The Jaguars defense is Top 2 in total defense, scoring defense, sacks and interceptions. Jacksonville's top-rated running game will go against the Bills' No .29 run defense. Being able to take the Jaguars at -3 on a teaser is a bargain.Carolina At New Orleans OVER Teaser
I honestly never considered the side on the Panthers-Saints showdown. The most attractive aspect to me is the total and being able to lower it from 49 to 43 and make it an OVER play. In their past seven matchups, only once has the total fallen to this level (43 points, 11/17/16) and there are no indications it will reach that level again. Additionally, one aspect I cannot ignore is this: New Orleans is 24-2 OVER the teaser total in home games off a road loss.