For Survivor pools and teaser bets, it has not been an easy year as the number of teams expected to play well have not and supposed cellar-dwellers like the New York Jets are surpassing expectations. But here's a winning quarter of 6-point teasers for Week 6.
Having conceivably just hit a few two-teamers with our 7-5 teaser record, I'm making a few adjustments for our NFL picks on a short list of games (two byes and two other games without lines as of Oct. 12 morning) for Week 6. Here is what I see is the best value against the NFL odds for teasers on Sunday.New England From -9 to -3 vs. N.Y. Jets
Neither of these AFC East rivals are playing as expected, with New England having severe defensive problems and the Jets arguably the biggest surprise in the NFL on three-game winning streak when most were not sure they win three times all season. As I talk about each week, getting value matters, and here we have the better team going past key numbers of 6 and 7, which really can matter. Besides this, we uncovered the Patriots are 25-1 against a teaser line on the road after allowing 375 or more total yards in two consecutive games.Miami From +12 to +18 vs. Atlanta
With the Dolphins the worst scoring team in the NFL at 10.4 points a game and Atlanta still having among the best offenses, the Falcons flew from -10 to -12. For this teaser I note that the Dirty Birds are allowing 22.2 PPG; thus, it is conceivable Miami would reach 17 to 20 points, and its offense cannot keep playing this poorly even with Jay Cutler. In addition to the Fins being 27-14-2 ATS as non-division road underdogs when road dogs like Miami are being outgained by opponent by 70 or more passing yards per game on the season after gaining 5.5 or less passing yards per attempt in last outing, they have lost by just 5.4 PPG in their last 163 contests. Got all that?Pittsburgh From +4.5 to +10.5 vs. Kansas City
It has been a brutal week in Pittsburgh with a great deal of talk about Ben Roethlisberger maybe being washed up, prima donna running backs and receivers saying they need the ball more, and the Steelers' run defense either very good or very bad. This does not seem like an ideal week to face 5-0 Kansas City. However, this could be a "circle the wagons" game for the Steelers, and on the teaser side we would climb over important numbers like 6, 7 and 10. Maybe the Chiefs chop up Pittsburgh, but I believe the Steelers rise to the occasion.Giants-Broncos Total From 39.5 To 45.5
The New York Football Giants have very few offensive assets due to injury and not having very good players everywhere else. This situation is made worse having to play against a very good Denver defense, and the total is a relatively low 39.5. In normal time, the Giants are 23-8 UNDER vs. teams allowing 4.75 or less yards a play with average total score of 33.4 points. Being able to take this to UNDER 45.5 on teaser line is like buying insurance.