The MVP market is usually ripe for some season-long value and this coming year looks to be no different with only two players listed with single digits odds for 2021/22.
I personally tend to pick a couple of players at the start of the season and then look for value during the year. The MVP award is based largely on narrative, and if something happens after Week 8 that tends to skew the view of the voters that way. So it’s well worth keeping an eye on Sportsbook Review during the season to see where they’re leaning.
As for sleeper picks, I tend to avoid the short price favorites as there are so many competitors. It’s worth noting that it’s even tougher to retain the MVP crown, Peyton Manning in 08′ and 09′ was the last man to achieve that feat, so Aaron Rodgers at single figures at the best sportsbooks doesn’t appeal to me.
Obviously, it goes without saying that Quarterbacks are the more likely winners of the award; since Jerry Rice in 1987, it’s only been QB or Running Back, with QB taking the crown 24 times and RBs 9, with the last being Adrian Peterson in 2012.
Unless someone has a remarkable season, you need to be looking at a team that makes the playoffs, so focus on them, and make your choices from that.
The talented former-Lions QB moved teams in the off-season, and the talent around him means that things are looking up for him. He’s shown himself an iron-man through the years, so I’m not worried about injury’s meaning he misses games. Plus, the team seems to be all-in on winning the Super Bowl, and he’s got a better offensive line than he’s had before as well as Cooper Kupp and Robert Woods providing good WR options, not to mention one of the better coaches in the league.
Thanks to the Cowboys’ dismal defense Dak started the season having to throw the ball a lot, and he was on target to obliterate NFL passing records before getting injured and missing the rest of the year. The team struggled badly after he went down. As long as his recovery goes to plan, and the Cowboys actually pay him, there’s no reason why he won’t take the offensive talent on that roster to a winning season.
Why not take the Super Bowl-winning 43-year-old as an MVP candidate for next season? He’s exceeded expectations and broken all sorts of records through the last few years, so why couldn’t he take his Tampa team to the post-season once again? With the easiest schedule on paper, the Saints probably losing talent due to cap issues, the Panthers rebuilding, and the Falcons being the Falcons, the division seems easier at the moment as well. They’re second faves for the Super Bowl in 2022, if they get there he’ll get the plaudits
I had to mention a couple from the AFC side of things as well, and while neither are too likely in my eyes (The Chiefs may well win the AFC again.) At the odds, this one isn’t the most terrible bet ever. There’s new coaching in Los Angeles for the Chargers, and with the talent on the roster, the team could step forward. Herbert won OROY last year, performing very well after coming in for Tyrod Taylor early in the season. If they manage to beat the Chiefs to the AFC West crown, then Herbert would be mentioned up there with the main contenders.
Ok, hear me out on this one. Yes, he was terrible last season, but that’s going to be a long way away from Carson Wentz’s mind when he steps out for the Colts. He’ll be behind one of the best offensive lines in the league and will team up once again with the man who coached him when he was MVP-elect in his rookie season for the Eagles. The Colts are joint faves to win the AFC South with the Titans, and if anyone can return Wentz to form, it’s Frank Reich and the rest of the former Eagles on his coaching staff. A longshot for sure, but they should have a winning record this year.