Week 10 NFL Trends to Beat the Books: Sexual Chocolate

Jay Pryce

Tuesday, November 6, 2018 3:12 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 6, 2018 3:12 PM UTC

Check out these top 10 betting trends and situations for the 2018 Week 10 NFL season, including a solid angle on teams coming to America after a tussle abroad.

Sexual Chocolate. Sexual Chocolate!

The Browns are 1-5 SU and 2-6 in their last six games, the defense rolled over for 31.3 points and 466.7 yards per game. For the season, the numbers equal 27.4 and 285.0 respectively. This is bad news with the Falcons coming to town. QB Matt Ryan is 12-3 SU and 11-4 ATS as a road favorite against a defense yielding more than 24.5 points per tilt for the year. Atlanta averages 26.9 points in this spot. He’s no Randy Watson, but that boy is good.

Damn Shame What They Did to That Dog

Road teams coming off an outright win as the betting underdog are 17-29 ATS (37.0 percent) in Week 10 since 1994. When favorites or a short-priced pup of a field goal or less, the mark moves to 6-14 ATS (70 percent) overall. The Saints (-4), Falcons (-4), and Chargers (-9.5) are in this situation Sunday.

Streak Buster

Teams having failed to cover a spread in three straight games or more are 51-38-2 ATS (57.3 percent) in Week 10 since 1989. When their opponent owns a better winning percentage, the record improves to 33-18 ATS (64.7 percent). The Bengals (+4), Bills (+7.5) and Raiders (+9.5) fall under the latter betting conditions this week.

What Luck

Colts QB Andrew Luck is 17-4 SU and has covered the spread in two-thirds (14-7 ATS) of contests as the betting favorite against division rivals. Indy is laying a field goal to the slumping Jaguars on Sunday.

Coming to America

The Eagles topped the Jaguars 24-18 at Wembley in London last time out for each team. NFL franchises coming off a defensive struggle of 44 combined points or less on neutral soil are 22-10-2 ATS (68.8 percent) next time out.

When You Think of Garbage, Think of Akeem

Speaking of garbage, the Raiders and Giants each own a single victory all season. Teams entering Week 10 with fewer than two victories are 37-20-3 ATS (64.9 percent) since the introduction of the salary cap in 1994. When the opponent is coming off a win, the mark jumps to 18-5-1 ATS. They face the Chargers and 49ers respectively, both victors last Sunday.

Chiefs to Clip Cardinals Wings?

Since 1989, road teams catching more than two touchdowns on the NFL oddsboard in the second half of the regular season has seen the under cash in 58.5 percent of games (38-27-2). They average a measly 12.4 points per game.

Cowboy Up

The Cowboys are catching 6 points at the Eagles Sunday, the third longest odds ever against an NFC East rival behind longtime head coach Jason Garrett. Dallas is 5-5 SU and 7-3 ATS spotted more than a field goal against division foes during Garrett’s tenure.

Check SBR's NFL Betting Forum

Stafford, Lions Reeling

The Lions have combined for 23 points over their last two games. Franchise QB Matt Stafford was held to no touchdowns and 199 passing yards in a 24-9 defeat at the Vikings Sunday. When failing to find the end zone, and held to fewer than 260 yards through the air in his previous outing, Stafford is 3-10 SU and ATS in the follow-up effort. Moreover, in four Soldier Field clashes catching points, Stafford leads the offense to 14.5 points per game. Sigh.

Packers a Poor Bet?

Toss out QB Aaron Rodgers’ mastery over the NFC North, and he is 8-9 SU and 5-12 ATS laying points on the road to non-divisional foes since November 2011. The Pack put up just 22.6 points per game in this spot.

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