Tom Brady’s 2018 Passing Yardage Total Set at 4,375 Yards; Best Bet?

SBR Staff

Thursday, May 17, 2018 8:07 PM UTC

Thursday, May. 17, 2018 8:07 PM UTC

New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady is still going strong as he approaches age 41. Intertops offers a prop on his 2018 passing yards.

I suppose when you are still playing quarterback in the NFL at the highest level possible at age 40, considered perhaps the greatest QB in NFL history, are movie star handsome and have a supermodel wife who is more famous and makes more money than you do, then you are allowed to be a bit eccentric.

That said, it has been a weird offseason for New England’s Tom Brady. Following the shocking Super Bowl loss to the Eagles, in which Brady threw for a Super Bowl record 505 yards, he hinted at retirement and just let it linger. It hung around for a few months until Brady’s agent, Don Yee, said that Brady plans to play football into his mid-40s or until his quality of play degrades. Then, Brady skipped the start of offseason activities with the Patriots.

Perhaps the oddest thing was when Brady was interviewed by Jim Gray (what a lackey) while speaking at the Milken Institute Global Conference in California. When asked if he felt appreciated by the Patriots, Brady said, "I plead the Fifth!" Huh? Clearly, there’s some tension between Brady and Coach Bill Belichick, probably over the team banning Brady’s trainer and business partner, Alex Guerrero.

Whether this is Brady’s last season or not is another question, but Intertops offers a prop on his 2018 passing yards at 4,375.5, with both ‘over’ and ‘under’ at -115. Brady must play Week 1 – New England is -7 against visiting Houston on Sept. 9 on the NFL odds – for this prop to be active. The only way Brady isn’t out there? If he gets hurt during camp or the preseason.

Brady won his third career MVP Award in 2017, now two shy of Peyton Manning’s record. Brady led the NFL with 4,577 passing yards, 62 more than No. 2 Philip Rivers of the Los Angeles Chargers. Despite his advanced age – he will be 41 in August – Brady played all 16 regular-season games. He was very efficient, completing 66.3 percent of his passes, third-best in his career. Brady’s 581 attempts were actually his fewest in a 16-game season since 2010. The yardage was the fifth-most in his career; Brady’s high of 5,235 was in 2011.

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#TomBrady looks like he had won the 63rd hunger games and returned to watch the 75th pic.twitter.com/CDyiWyyaH9

— Cannon (@Cannoni_) May 8, 2018
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The Patriots did say goodbye to a few top Brady targets this offseason. Brandin Cooks, probably Brady’s best deep threat since Randy Moss, was surprisingly traded to the Los Angeles Rams. Cooks was second on the team with 1,082 yards behind tight end Rob Gronkowski (no, he’s not retiring, either). Third-leading receiver Danny Amendola signed with the Dolphins in free agency. Running back Dion Lewis, a decent target out of the backfield with 32 catches for 214 yards, signed with the Titans.

New England has replaced Cooks and Amendola with receivers Jordan Matthews and Cordarrelle Patterson – two low-risk potentially high-reward guys. Last season with Buffalo, Matthews played in 10 games and finished with 25 receptions for 282 yards with one touchdown before finishing the season on injured reserve. He’s better than those numbers. Patterson had 31 catches for 309 yards for Oakland last season and will be the team’s primary kick returner.

For Brady to surpass the Intertops total of 4,375.5-yard total, he would have to average around 274 passing yards per game. That’s for 16 games, however. What happens if the Patriots have home-field advantage clinched and sit Brady for Week 17? That’s quite possible. Then Brady would have to average nearly 292 yards per game over 15.

That’s the risk you run on these types of totals: any injury, etc., and the ‘over’ is tough to win.

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