TNF Prop Pick: Raiders' Cook Will Only Be on Light Simmer vs. Chiefs

Jordan Sharp

Thursday, October 19, 2017 1:06 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 19, 2017 1:06 PM UTC

We have been on a roll in our NFL props, and here we are back again on a Thursday with a really good divisional matchup to digest between the Chiefs and Raiders. 

Jared Cook O/U 40½ Receiving Yards

With the Oakland Raiders scuffling heading into this Thursday night game against one of the best teams in football in the Chiefs, it’s hard to see them coming out on top, even at home. A big reason for their helplessness over the last four weeks has been their inconsistent pass catchers.

Oakland receiver Amari Cooper has gotten a lot of flak for his drops and really underwhelming play. As well he should. However, tight end Jared Cook has been just as inconsistent after signing a deal worth more than $10 million over the next two seasons. Cook isn’t a big name like Cooper, though, so he doesn’t get near the heat that Cooper has received for his drops this season.

Heading into a home game against the Chiefs is not going to help Cook catch more passes, either. In fact, it might do the opposite. The Chiefs have held opposing tight ends to an average of 65 yards per game this season, and if it wasn’t for Zach Ertz and Vernon Davis busting big plays against them in Weeks 2 and 4, it would be a lot lower than that.

However, even after giving up that pair of big plays, the Chiefs still rank as the 7th-best team against opposing tight ends this season when you account for touchdowns. The Chiefs are one of only six teams that have yet to allow a touchdown to an opposing tight end. They have held down better tight ends than Cook, and even though the Raiders may be forced to play from behind, I doubt Cook does much either way.

Add in that Cook’s target share has been dropping pretty much every week over the last four, and you have a smooth recipe for the under on this play. Cooks only saw 3 targets last week after getting six or more in four straight before that. He also has a horrendous catch rate recently, hauling in just 8-of-17 targets in his last three games. Frankly, I don’t think Cook can get to 30 yards against Kansas City.

Free NFL Pick: Under 40½Best Line Offered: BetOnline
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