Tennessee Titans vs. Baltimore Ravens
Sunday, November 22. 2020 – 1:00 PM ET at M&T Bank Stadium
Conference matchups that are rematches from the previous playoffs are some of the zaniest and most difficult games to bet. It's hard to not overvalue their last game even when knowing that rosters change. It's not fair to hold standards from last year. These games come down to playmakers, but usually, it's the role players who ascend to the moment more than the superstars doing even more.
We're going to break down the Tennessee Titans and Baltimore Ravens Week 11 matchup. Both teams need a win to continue trending upwards into the playoffs. The 6-3 Titans have a little more room to wiggle to win their division, whereas the Ravens should be desperate for a win in a loaded AFC North.
The big matchup will be a ground-game measuring stick between Lamar Jackson, J.K. Dobbins and Derrick Henry. The Ravens own the second-best rushing game and the Titans are sixth. That bodes well for hitting the under on total bets and aiming for a lower-scoring game on the top sportsbooks.
The NFL's leading rusher is close to eclipsing the 1,000-yard mark already as he's totaled 946 and eight scores on 201 rushes. The 26-year-old hasn't been consistently dominating every week en route to his production, as he's not had back-to-back games over 84 yards yet this year. But he's either marginally effective or extremely effective.
This week he'll need to be extremely effective for the Titans to win. I like the Titans +6 this week because of the Ravens' offensive slip from last year and how physical the Titans can play in the trenches. The Titans famously upset the Ravens in the playoffs last year with the same formula, and even though the rosters are different, their recipe was just replicated by a lesser Patriots team and it worked.
The Ravens defense has allowed the fifth-least rushing attempts but the 11th-most yards. They're not good at stopping the run, with 4.5 yards being gained each attempt. That must have the Titans drooling at the possibility of feeding Henry a ton of carries and watching him wear this unit down.
The Ravens are better at stopping the pass than the run, and the Titans are happy to run even when trailing. Henry's total looks like an easy cash-in of the week, so make sure this is at the top of parlays and other bet sheets.
For the spread, this is tough. The line has moved one point towards the Titans already, and is less attractive at five than six. But this looks like a field goal game either way.
I'm still comfortable taking Jackson and the Ravens to win but not to cover. The best values lie in the prop bet, spread and total though. It's hard to be too confident in Jackson's passing considering they're 31st in the league in yards and the lack of a reliable playmaker at receivers is a glaring need for this season.
Their loading up with defensive money may not have been a mistake but it's left the offense vulnerable for this criticism and concern in big games. Relying on Mark Andrews is fine but not going to win a championship in 2020. Can Dez Bryant give anything to this team, or is it all on Hollywood Brown's small frame?
I wouldn't be surprised if Bryant never makes an impactful play based on the severity of his injury and how he aged prior to that. The Ravens are a great roster, and they can win any game, any week, but their allure from 2019 is somewhat gone until Jackson hits a new high.