Titans over Jaguars for your NFL Picks

Nila Amerova

Wednesday, December 18, 2013 7:18 PM UTC

Wednesday, Dec. 18, 2013 7:18 PM UTC

NFL week 16 is fast approaching and on the menu is the clash between the Titans and Jaguars, two sides that have no hope for a playoff berth but are looking to reassert a claim for 2014. Join us as we break down the NFL odds and serve up our value NFL picks for your consideration.

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Titans (5-9, 3-4 away)
ATS: Titans are 6-5-3 ATS this season, 5-2-0 away

The Tennessee Titans have had a rough few weeks with three straight defeats to Indianapolis, Denver (an NFL playoffs betting favourite across sportsbooks) and Arizona.

The last defeat was arguably the most disappointing as the Titans made a concentrated push towards the late stages only to succumb to defeat in overtime to the Cardinals. Although the Titans as a whole outgained the Cardinals 460-360 and Ryan Fitzpatrick went 402 yards and 4 TD’s, he had 2 interceptions as well as being sacked three times and that inherent streaky play by Fitzpatrick proved costly once again.

It was a dramatic and tense finish as the Titans, posting 17 points in the final three minutes of the game with Ryan Fitzpatrick rising to the occasion and throwing two of the four touchdowns he had on the night, had all the momentum going into overtime. Meanwhile the Cardinals, who were hoping to keep postseason hopes alive, looked dangerously close to defeat after coughing up the lead and allowing the Titans back into the game. But then Antoine Cason intercepted Fitzpatrick’s pass and, in turn, shifted the momentum back in favour of the Cardinals and three first downs later, they needed only field goal to seal the win.

The Titans have now lost three in a row, eight of their last ten games. Yet, despite their suspect form, sportsbooks send them into their clash with the Jaguars as the hot favourites at -220 NFL odds to win straight up. A 3-4 road record goes some way towards explaining that market cast perhaps. But when their last road win was against Oakland Raiders last month, a 23-19 win on November 24 that featured once again both a very streaky Fitzpatrick and a late push by the Titans (this time with better success mind), how convincing are they as the NFL betting favourite here? Moreover, don’t forget the Titans gave the Jaguars their first win on the season when they lost at home on November 10.

Jaguars (4-10, 1-6 home)
ATS: Jaguars are 5-9-0 ATS this season, 1-6-0 home

Since coming off a Bye week, the Jaguars have been an entirely different team. What began as an abysmal season, taking a nosedive on eight straight defeats, all of a sudden, turned around on the back of four wins in their last six games.

This much-improved form began with a victory over the Titans on the road. Although they stumbled against the Arizona Cardinals in the subsequent week, they reeled off three straight wins after that, twice over Houston and once over Cleveland. Most recently, the Jaguars are coming off a 27-20 defeat at home to Buffalo, a game that saw them revert to some of the mistakes they made early on the season.

Given their topsy-turvy season altogether it is no surprise that they are at the disadvantage in NFL betting markets, listed at +200 NFL odds to win straight up. They are also listed as the 5.5-point underdogs on the spread.

Tennessee Titans -240 (-5.5 -110) vs. Jacksonville Jaguars +200 (+5.5 -110)

Make sure to check out our:

NFL Picks: Week 16 Betting Odds Report

Betting Tips and Picks

On balance, this game could go either way seeing that neither team leaps off the page convincingly enough. The Titans have regressed recently while the Jaguars have improved somewhat.

Most NFL experts are recommending the Titans as the best NFL pick in this matchup. That prediction however rests largely on Ryan Fitzpatrick, a player that is just too streaky to be able to consistently come through on expectations. What’s more, Titan’s penchant for late pushes is not much to hang one’s hat on. That’s why, for our part at least, we’re thinking of going against the grain here, and backing the Jaguars for the upset on our NFL picks. This game has no postseason implications so there really is no incentive, save for pride that is. What’s more, the Jaguars beat the Titans on the road just last month, a win that proved to be the catalyst for a better second half of the season and which  should give them confidence to try to sweep the series on Sunday. 

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