Titans 5-0 ATS on MNF But is the Side the Play Against Anemic Colts?

David Schwab

Sunday, October 15, 2017 1:53 PM UTC

Sunday, Oct. 15, 2017 1:53 PM UTC

Monday Night Football in Week 6 takes its prime-time show to Nashville for an AFC South showdown between the 2-3 Indianapolis Colts and the 2-3 Tennessee Titans in an 8:30 p.m. kickoff on ESPN from Nissan Stadium. Straight-up, the Colts have won their last five road games against their division rivals.

Indianapolis Colts at Tennessee Titans
Pointspread: Tennessee OFF
Total Line: OFF

Indianapolis at Tennessee Game Overview

The Colts have been able to get past Cleveland and San Francisco at home both straight-up and against the spread in two of its last three games along with a 48-18 loss to Seattle on the road as 12.5-point underdogs. They are 3-2 ATS overall and the total has gone OVER in their last three games. The total has also gone OVER in nine of their last 10 games on the road.

While Andrew Luck continues to rehab his shoulder, Indianapolis has turned the keys to the offense over to second-year quarterback Jacoby Brissett. While the inconsistency in his game has been very predictable on an offense that is ranked 25th in the NFL in total yards, he has shown some glimpses that he can be a starting quarterback at the next level. He threw for 314 yards and one score last week against the 49ers, while adding another touchdown on the ground to help pace the win.

Tennessee got off to a promising 2-1 start both SU and ATS, but it is coming off back-to-back losses to Houston and Miami on the road in its last two outings. The Titans got their doors blown off in a 57-14 loss to the Texans as 2.5-point favorites on the odds boards before dropping a 16-10 decision to the Dolphins as one-point underdogs. The total stayed UNDER 41 points in last Sunday’s loss after going OVER in their previous three games. Tennessee returns home with an 8-15-2 record ATS in its last 25 games at Nissan Stadium.

Titans’ quarterback Marcus Mariota missed last week’s start at Miami with a bad hamstring and it was pretty obvious he was out of the lineup given the team’s 188 yards of total offense. He has returned to practice this week so his availability for Monday night looks pretty good. Even when he was under center, the Titans have struggled at times to consistently move the ball as the 24th-ranked team in the NFL in total yards gained.

Indianapolis at Tennessee Game Betting Trends

The Colts are 10-2 ATS in their last 12 road games against a team with a SU losing record at home, but they have gone 0-5 ATS in their last five games following a SU win. The total has gone OVER in six of their last seven Week 6 games.

The Titans have covered the spread in their last five Monday games, but they are 1-4 ATS in their last five games played in October. The total has stayed UNDER in four of their last five games coming off an ATS loss.

Head-to-head in this division matchup, the favorite has covered in seven of the last nine meetings and the total has gone OVER in three of the last five games played in Tennessee.

Indianapolis at Tennessee NFL Pick

Even with Mariota in the starting lineup, the Titans have struggled with consistency scoring points. With Luck out of the Colts’ lineup, Indy’s offense is a mere shell of its former self. Past trends may favor a higher scoring game than the posted total line, but this particular matchup adds up to a low-scoring battle in Nashville on Monday night. Based on SBR Odds, my top NFL pick for this game in the UNDER on an anticipated total line of 40 points.

Lines Not Yet Released as of Sunday
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