Tennessee plays both Super Bowl participants and travels to London, yet owns the second-easiest schedule in 2018. How? More than half their games are against pedestrian AFC South and AFC East opponents.
Below you will find the Titans’ straight-up and against-the-spread records from last year’s NFL regular season, including average margin of victory, 2017 average odds, 2017 win totals and 2018 pre-scheduled figures, and projected strength of schedule using opponents’ combined record from 2017.
2017 SU Record: 9-7 (1.4 avg. margin)
2017 ATS Record: 7-8-1 (-3.3 avg. margin)
2017 Average Line: -2.0
2017 Win Total: 9 (-110)
2018 Win Total 5Dimes (pre-schedule): 7.5 (-160)
2018 Strength of Schedule: 31st, opponents were 119-137 (.465)
Three Games to Back ATS
@Colts, Week 11; @Giants, Week 15; Colts, Week 17
Give quarterback Marcus Mariota time and space to pass, and the Titans offense is really good. Eager to tuck and run against pressure, Mariota owned a passer rating of just 83.0 against the blitz in 2017. This ranked 30th among all NFL signal-callers. The former Heisman trophy winner ranked second, however, in Pro Football Focus’ “big-time” throw stat, which measures the highest value and difficulty of passes in terms of location, timing, and effectiveness. These tosses essentially allow for the most productive plays through the air.
Mariota and the Titans, therefore, are at their best when up against leaky pass defenses that fail to generate many sacks. Tennessee is 12-6 SU and averaging 23.9 points per game with Mariota under center versus defenses recording fewer than 2.15 sacks per game the prior season. When the unit additionally yielded more than 240.5 passing yards per game, Tennessee improves to 7-1 SU and 5-3 ATS. It’s average point total jumps to 24.8 per tilt. Mariota has 14 passing touchdowns , while also rushing for a pair in the latter scenario.
Three Games to Fade ATS
@Miami, Week 1; @Bills, Week 5; Jets, Week 13
The AFC South is one of the weakest divisions in the NFL over the last decade. One has to go back to 2009 to uncover the last time its representatives earned a winning record against all others in the league. Current win totals suggest another down year for the division.
Since 2015, the Titans are 5-15 ATS against AFC competition outside of the South. With Mariota under center, they are 1-6 versus the number. Averaging 17.8 points per game, Tennessee is 2-10 ATS as the betting favorite or underdog of a less than a field goal. This is the betting condition for the Titans’ season opener at Miami, the visitors laying 2.5 points. Expect similar figures in two other AFC East matchups versus the Bills and Jets.
Trap Game Potential
@Chargers, Week 7
Since 2002, the Titans are 3-15 SU and 3-14-1 ATS on the road in the Mountain and Pacific time zones. The defense allows 31.3 points per game. Look for Chargers quarterback Philip Rivers to have a field day.