Thursday Night Week 7 NFL Picks: Jets vs. Patriots

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, October 16, 2014 6:41 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 16, 2014 6:41 PM UTC

In the inevitable ebb and flow of the NFL I offer you one of the NFL biggest conflict selection of the YTD with ample reasons why you can add it to your NFL picks with confidence. 

Let us first turn to the dichotomous form of these two teams. Following a 2-2 SU, 1-3 ATs start, New England has erupted for a pair of momentum building wins against decent entities, Cincinnati and Buffalo. Those wins came by a combined score of 80-39. Just the opposite has been true for the NY Jets. Facing one of the most brutal stretches of scheduling, the Jets enter at 1-5 SU ATS with 4 consecutive spread defeats. After an opening day home field victory against the Raiders, the Jets have been forced to face quality teams such as Green Bay, Chicago, Detroit, San Diego and Denver. The resulting 5-game losing streak has seen them fall by a count of 144 to 77. In their most recent 4 games, they have averaged just 13 PPG on offense, while failing to the number by 55 points. Further reinforcing their negative situation is the fact that under current HC Ryan, the Jets are 1-7 ATS in Divisional games, following consecutive straight-up and spread losses. In last week’s 31-17 home field loss to Denver, they were outrushed by the Broncos 138-31. 

Further adding to the Jets’ woes is the mismatch at the QB position for the Jets. Whether it be 2ndyear starter, Geno Smith, or aging veteran, Michael Vick, who will take the reins. There is little doubt that NE QB Tom Brady is the NFL odds-on favorite at the signal caller spot. 

The light at the end of the tunnel comes as always with value in this game. We begin with the mental approach of each team. Knowing the plight of the Jets in recent weeks, it will be tough for even respected mentor HC Belichick to get his minions fully focused on a short week. No such problem for Jets’ HC Ryan, who will have his teams’ full attention against rival New England, a foe for whom the Jets always get sky high. The second factor favoring our UNDERDOG selection on the Jets revolves around that exact letdown tendency by New England. For the Patriots are just 6-20 ATS under the Belichick/Brady tandem when laying double digits of late. Thirdly, the diverse results of these two are in no small part tied to the net TO margin differential of these teams. It is the largest of any matchup for the YTD and begs for reversal. After 6 games, the Jets have a -9 net TO diff, while the Patriots have a +9 net TO diff.  That is a combined -18 net TO differential favoring the Jets, a number that begs for reversal. Finally, as promised, a fundamental reason for our selection. Despite the Jets’ poor record, they are still outrushing foes 121/4.5 to 92/3.5. The Patriots’ running stats are virtually even at 110 YPG on offense and 111 YPG on defense. If the combined averages played out tonight, the Jets would outrush the Pats by 30 or more yards (a 75% indication of pointspread success). 

In what is clearly one of the season’s largest contrary plays, I urge you to lineup with the NY Jets as underdog for your NFL picks in tonight’s primetime Divisional matchup.

OVER/UNDER players please note … Thursday, Sunday, Monday night primetime games are now 15-4 OVER this year, New England is 48-21 OVER in the regular season on the run and this series is 8-1 OVER in the most recent 9 games. If you are playing the TOTAL at 5Dimes, you know what to do.

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