It’s the final Thursday Night Football game of the season, and in order to extract some value from it, I am back with my three favorite prop NFL Picks. I think all three of them have great value tonight.
|Either team 3 straight scores -200 (Best line: 5Dimes)
No team 3 straight scores +160 (Best line: Bovada)
|Tennessee scores first +115 (Best line: 5Dimes)
Jacksonville scores first -135 (Best line: 5Dimes)
|Longest TD scored o38 5 -115 (Best line:BetOnline)
Longest TD scored u38.5 -115 (Best line: Bovada)
|Score in first 6:30 -115 (Best line:BetOnline)
No score in first 7:30 +120 (Best line: 5Dimes)
Delanie Walker TD Scored
Undoubtedly, this is by far one of the least desirable Thursday Night Football games. It’s between two bad teams, and with zero playoff implications anywhere in the AFC. However regardless, that doesn’t mean there isn’t any NFL odds value tonight. One example of that is Delanie Walker, who is +150 to score a touchdown tonight against Jacksonville. Even though the Jaguars defense has been better this season, they have given up a ton of production to tight ends this season. Owen Daniels got a touchdown last week, and as long as Walker is fully healthy, or close enough to it, I think he scores against Jacksonville as well. On the season the Jaguars have given up seven touchdowns to opposing tight ends, which ranks them 10th most in the NFL. They have also given up the 4th most targets to tight ends this season, so look for Walker to be heavily involved, and hopefully that will lead to a touchdown.
Free NFL Propositions Pick: Walker TD Scored +150
O/U 4.5 touchdowns
Tonight’s game has a total of only 40 ½, and the total number of touchdowns is obviously going to go down if that number is anywhere close to the actual final score. With that being said, I don’t think there’s any way this game has five or more touchdowns. Last week we cashed a prop with the Titans and Jets last week that was very similar to this one, and while substituting the Jaguars over the Jets does change things, it doesn’t change enough for me to abandon the under in this one. Charlie Whitehurst starting this week does change some things as well, but it could also lead to less offense for the Titans too. He has not performed well in his starts this season, and the Jaguars defense isn’t that bad overall. Still, the Titans have only scored 18 points in the last two weeks, and in their last eight games, the Titans have only scored around 16 points per game. I doubt the Jags get much higher than that tonight either, so bet the under at 5Dimes.
Free NFL Propositions Pick: UNDER 4.5 touchdowns (-125)
O/U 3.5 Field Goals
With the touchdown prop hopefully going under, you can probably already guess where I’m going with the field goal prop NFL pick this week. Even though these two offenses aren’t that great, on a short week, they could find a little more success in getting into the red zone. However once they get there, they likely won’t be able to do anything with it, and that’s why I love the over on this field goal prop. The Jaguars are the worst team in the NFL in red zone conversion percentage, and the Titans aren’t much better, ranking 24th at less than 50%. Tonight’s game should see a ton of getting into the red zone and failing to come away with a touchdown. The first time these two teams played this season, the game ended at 16-14. There were only three touchdowns, but three field goals as well, and if we can have that same number of TDs and one more field goal, this will end up being a great night.
Free NFL Propositions Pick: OVER 3.5 FGs