Thursday Night Football Week 8 NFL Picks: Chargers vs. Broncos

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, October 23, 2014 6:51 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 23, 2014 6:51 PM UTC

Combined with a recent 14-6 ATS home field record in regular season games, it is easy to see why the public has fallen in love with the Broncos. Let's take a closer look at our NFL picks for this matchup. 

Denver Broncos vs. San Diego Chargers
With the Broncos already profiting from their bye week, 3 weeks ago, and the Chargers playing for the 7th straight week, Denver holds a 1 game lead in the loss column for divisional supremacy. Denver lost last year on this field to San Diego on a Thursday night, when they were a battered and bruised team by a score of 27-20.  In that game, San Diego dominated overland with 177 RY.  The Broncos got their revenge in the playoffs in a wire-to-wire 24-17 win.  This time, it’s the Chargers who are dealing with injuries at DB, RB, and in the OL. 

Last week, those injuries played out in a 23-20 home loss to Kansas City as our NFL Underdog of the Week winner with the Chiefs on these pages.  The victory was for real as KC owned the line of scrimmage 154-69 and had a total yardage edge of 365-251.  It broke a 5 game win streak for the Chargers, who were 5-0 ATS to begin the season.  Now, the Chargers look to rebound at a site where they have had great success.  San Diego has covered 8 consecutive games at Mile High. Chargers QB Rivers is continuing his break-out season from last year.  In so doing, he is completing 67% of his passes at 8.2 OYPA, numbers that are virtually identical to his counterpart QB Manning.  The site of this setting will do little to impede Rivers’ success as he stands 6-2 SU as a starter on this field.  I expect a solid game from San Diego as the Chargers look to bounce back from last week’s defeat, as does Rivers who was just 17/31/1 for only 182 PY. 

I am well aware that the Bronco’s enter on quite a party.  Since their Week 4 bye, which followed their lone loss of the season, 26-20 to Seattle, the Broncos have been virtually immaculate. Victories over Arizona (41-20) and the Jets (31-17) were followed by Sunday night’s spectacular performance by QB Manning, who led the Broncos to a 42-17 win over the 49ers.  Shocking statistic from that game is the Bronco’s dominance at the point of attack in which they outrushed the 49ers 27/115 to 18/62.  Combined with Peyton Manning’s record-breaking performance, in which he tossed 4 TD passes to break Brett Favre’s record, the Denver party continued.  That’s now 3-0 SU ATS by a combined score of 114-54 with coverage of 37 points. Combined with a recent 14-6 ATS home field record in regular season games, it is easy to see why the public has fallen in love with the Broncos, pushing this line as high as -10 in some shops. 

Considering the line value in this contest and the excellence of the Chargers, who have outscored foes 26-16 on the season, the setting seems right for the Chargers to continue their success on this field against their division rival.  Look for history to repeat itself again in the Charger’s favor as they extend their recent record to 13-3 ATS as underdog and throw water on a still celebrating Denver team, who has had just 4 days to prepare off the high of Manning’s record-breaking performance.  This is the setting from which NFL upsets are born.

With a perfect 3-0 OVER mark in prime time games last week that were all LTS winners for us, prime time games are now 18-4 OVER for the season.  In a similar way, division contests had a 3-1 OVER mark last week, pushing those games to 19-12 OVER for the season. For your NFL picks consider that with flying footballs, courtesy of Rivers and Manning, it would be no surprise to this bureau if there is another high-scoring result at Mile High Stadium tonight.     

NFL picks: San Diego Chargers +9.5 & the 'Over' 51

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Check Out Our Complete Coverage: 

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