Thursday Night Football Week 4 Predictions - Miami Dolphins vs. Cincinnati Bengals

Miami Dolphins players going over plays

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, September 29, 2016 4:55 PM UTC

Thursday, Sep. 29, 2016 4:55 PM UTC

Week 4 is filled with enticing matchups that serve lots of betting value. I will start my NFL picks with Thursday Night Football game between Dolphins and Bengals where negatives abound for each of these teams, yet there is sound reasoning for my selection.


Our NFL week 4 picks kickoff with the Thursday night football matchup that features Dolphins vs. Bengals. Each team enters at 1-2 SU ATS. While Miami is coming off a victory, the Bengals enter following consecutive defeats. Negatives abound for each of these teams, yet there is sound reasoning for my selection on the Miami Dolphins.


Cincinnati Bengals
For the Cincinnati Bengals, who have made the playoffs for 5 consecutive years, it has been a rocky start to the 2016 season. In fact, going back to the middle of the season last year, we find that following an 8-0 SU start to 2015, that the Bengals are just 5-7 SU in their last 12 games. Injuries, especially to QB Dalton, negatively impacted them late last season. This year, Dalton has already been sacked 12 times in 3 games, a major reason for the Bengals’ inconsistency on offense. Through 3 games, Cincinnati is averaging just 19 PPG and has a ground game averaging just 82 RYPG on 3.7 YPR. Last week, the Bengals got their ground game in gear, outrushing the Broncos 143-52.  But, they were outscored 13-3 in the 4thquarter, as the defending champion Broncos proved why they are just that! Many will be looking for the Bengals’ bounce back on TNF. But over the years, there has been a clear negative tendency for 1-2 SU Game 4 teams to succeed in the role of favorite.   


Miami Dolphins
Miami is a likewise 1-2 SU ATS. The offense has yet to get on track under new HC Adam Gase (the former OC at Chicago and Denver).  A closer inspection inside the numbers shows their first 2 losses were by only 2 points at Seattle and 7 at New England. Not bad! Last week, however, after leading Cleveland 24-13, it took a Browns’ missed FG at the end of the game and the Miami score in OT to get the victory. That ATS failure now drops the Dolphins to 6-18 ATS, dating to late 2014.  


Final Analysis
Miami has proven they can compete with superior teams, while the Bengals are clearly struggling out of the gate. That makes the impost of more than a TD, clearly the way to go in this one. I invite you to put the NFL betting odds in your favor and join me in my NFL pick on the Miami Dolphins tonight.


Free NFL Pick: Dolphins +7.5
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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