Thursday Night Football Total Points Predictions - Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers

San Francisco 49ers players in field

Jay Pryce

Wednesday, October 5, 2016 12:15 AM UTC

Wednesday, Oct. 5, 2016 12:15 AM UTC

The Arizona Cardinals and San Francisco 49ers clash at Levi’s Stadium on Thursday Night Football. Will primetime treatment spark some scoring in the typically low-scoring matchup? Check out our prediction and NFL pick on the total here.

Arizona Cardinals (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)

Will QB Carson Palmer play? This is what every bettor needs to know before placing a wager. The veteran left last weekend’s loss to the Rams with a concussion. Head coach Bruce Arians is optimistic Palmer will suit up, but league insiders are not as rosy. Check up on Wednesday for updates. If Palmer is out, Drew Stanton will lead the offense. In 2014, Stanton compiled a 78.7 passer rating with 7 TDs and 5 INTs in eight games under center for the ailing Palmer.

Arians’ defense is once again a top-caliber unit. It’s particularly good against the pass, yielding only 5.8 yards per attempt (sixth in the NFL). Under Arians, the defense holds teams to 14.5 points per game when facing an offense putting up less than 6.5 yards per attempt (18-3 SU, 15-6 ATS). The 49ers enter with 6.0 per pass.

Arizona ranks third in takeaways with 2.2 per game. Since 2013, the team is 10-14 SU and 8-15-1 ATS when losing the turnover battle in a game; 26-5 SU and 24-7 ATS otherwise.

The Cardinals are 5-4 SU and 6-3 ATS under Arians on the road against division opponents. They are scoring 19.8 points per game while allowing 18.0.


San Francisco 49ers (1-3 SU, 1-3 ATS)

Defensively, the team will be without its leader LB NaVorro Bowman, who is out for the season with a torn Achilles. Bowman sustained the injury in the Cowboys loss on Sunday. Outside LB Aaron Lynch returns from a four-game suspension, which should provide a small boost to an injury-riddled unit.

Head coach Chip Kelly’s passing game is in shambles. It’s 178.8 yards per game are the fewest in the NFL, and 57.9 completion percentage third lowest. The 49ers are run-first, though, calling for a carry on 51.2 percent of plays (second).

The UNDER is 15-2-1 in San Francisco’s last 18 games at home. Poor offense and good defense is helping stay below the number. In only four of these contests did the 49ers score more than the betting market projected in regulation time. Moreover, they allowed more than predicted just four times as well. 


Arizona Cardinals vs San Francisco 49ers 

The Cardinals offense is out of sorts this season, and Palmer will likely sit out even if he passes the league’s concussion protocol—short week with little preparation. Stanton doesn’t inspire much confidence under center. In 10 contests where he’s tossed 10 passing attempts or more, Arizona averages 15.1 points per game. San Francisco, meanwhile, averages 13.5 points per game in the last four meetings versus the Cardinals. The offense should offer more under Kelly, but the personnel are much the same. Under 42.5 is the week 5 NFL pick on the total. Get on that number over at Intertops and take advantage of their huge sign-up cash bonus.


Free NFL Pick: Under 42.5
Best Line Offered: at Intertops
SBR YTD record: 131-92-6 (avg. odds -104); NFL (2016-17): 23-9 (avg. odds -106)

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