After an incredible 10-1 prop week for yours truly, I am back at it in Week 8, trying to recapture some of my hot streak. The NFL Odds this week from bet365 are incredible, and I have three more plays from bet365 Thursday night for you to add to your NFL Picks.
Ronnie Hillman O/U 78 ½ Rush Yards
Our first play of the night is the Broncos’ Ronnie Hillman, who with Montee Ball on the shelf is now the Broncos lead back. He has had success before in this offense, and it has been on display over the last two weeks. He rushed for 100 yards two weeks ago, and this past Sunday he went for 74 on 14 carries. Now his over/under for tonight on short rest is 78 ½, but after rushing the ball so much over the last few weeks, I don’t think the short week is going to favor Hillman here. Plus, the Chargers’ defense is very good at stopping the run. They barely give up more than 100 rushing yards per game, and on the short week even though defenses are normally tired still, Hillman is being slightly overvalued in the NFL odds this week. I see Peyton Manning throwing the ball more here, and with Hillman likely involved in the receiving game too, this is an under play for me.
NFL Pick: Hillman UNDER 78 ½ rush yards (-115)
Phillip Rivers O/U 285 ½ Pass Yards
On the other side of the ball tonight is Phillip Rivers, whose over/under for passing yards is well under 300 at 285 ½. This could be a steal on a short week, and against one of the shakier pass defenses in the NFL. Even though they have played some horrible passing offenses this season outside of the Colts in Week 1, they’re still 18th in the NFL in passing yards against. The Broncos still give up close to 250 passing yards per game, and with the season Rivers is having, there is no doubt in my mind that he could get to above 285 tonight. Andrew Luck and the Colts dropped 370 on the Broncos in Week 1, and Rivers is the best passing quarterback the Broncos have played since then. Take the over tonight for your NFL picks, and the great NFL odds value for it at -115.
NFL Pick: Rivers OVER 285 ½ (-115)
Chargers O/U 20 ½ Points
For my last prop of the evening, I’m going with a team points prop on the Chargers. At only 20 ½, this might also be a great play on the over tonight. As I mentioned above, the Broncos pass defense is not great even though the top layer of stats don’t really show it. If Rivers can throw for more than 300 yards in this game, it will mean the Chargers have scored at least 3 touchdowns and the over is cashed. Plus, Thursday Night Football games so far this season have been very high scoring. The game total has gone over in six of the seven Thursday Night games this season, and even with some of those games lopsided, this one should be competitive. The Chargers have failed to score over 20 points only twice this season, and the Broncos’ shaky secondary is not going to keep them from it this week.
NFL Pick: OVER 20 ½ (-120)