Top Thursday Night Football Prop Picks for Week 11: Patriots vs. Falcons

Sportsbook Review

Last Updated: November 18, 2021 7:29 AM EST • 2 min 15 sec read. Twitter link Google News Link

INGLEWOOD, CALIFORNIA - OCTOBER 31: Damien Harris #37 of the New England Patriots runs with the ball while being tackled by Drue Tranquill #49 of the Los Angeles Chargers in the fourth quarter at SoFi Stadium on October 31, 2021 in Inglewood, California. Kevork Djansezian/Getty Images/AFP (Photo by KEVORK DJANSEZIAN / GETTY IMAGES NORTH AMERICA / Getty Images via AFP)

Both the New England Patriots and Atlanta Falcons are still in the NFL playoff race. We dive into their Thursday Night Football matchup with our top prop picks.

The Patriots are road favorites on Thursday Night Football. However, we’re not here to talk about the spread.

The beauty of Thursday Night Football is that everyone locks in on two teams, and this is the perfect time to look at prop bets. From first touchdown scorers to the first-half spread, there is plenty of value in TNF prop bets.

Here are my top prop picks for the Thursday Night Football matchup between the Patriots and Falcons (odds via FanDuel Sportsbook).

Top Thursday Night Football Prop Picks

Mac Jones Under 252.5 passing yards (-110)Damien Harris 2-plus touchdowns (+550)Kyle Pitts Under 61.5 receiving yards (-114)

Thursday Night Football Prop Bets

Jones Under 252.5 passing yards (-110)

Jones is coming off of a heck of a game against the Cleveland Browns in Week 10, and he looks like the best rookie quarterback so far this season. However, he wins with accuracy and balance. He has thrown for more than 250 passing yards only four times this season, and three of them were in losses where the Patriots needed to push the ball downfield.

If the Pats are in a close game, they will look to run the ball with Harris, who is back and healthy. They can win on the ground as they chew the clock and pull away in the second half. Jones can win with his arm, but New England won’t rely on the rookie quarterback in the second primetime game of his career.

The Falcons secondary is not stellar, but they can step up when needed. Expect Jones to top 200 passing yards, but hitting 253 will be too much.

Harris 2-plus touchdowns (+550)

This is strictly because of the value with this pick. Harris is coming off of an injury that held him out of Week 10, but he should be a full send for Thursday. He’ll have fresh legs, and he will get plenty of touches in the red zone.

Harris has only one multi-touchdown game this year, but he has also been largely avoided as a receiving back. If the Patriots finally give him targets as a receiver, he can break one free for a touchdown.

The Pats have depth at running back, but that boosts the value. I still see them trusting the proven talent in the red zone, which is a good sign for Harris crossing the goal line more than once against the Falcons.

Pitts Under 61.5 receiving yards (-114)

The vigs hurts, but the value is still there for the Under. Pitts has been inconsistent as a rookie tight end. Many expected him to be one of the best in the league, and while he has shown that potential, the production is not always there.

The Patriots are one of the best teams against tight ends this year by yards allowed per game, thanks to the return of LB Dont’a Hightower. They will lock in on Pitts, and it will be hard for him to find space in the open field.

Pitts will use his size and athleticism to win in the red zone, but plays like that don’t add much to your receiving total. While he would be a good fantasy option this week, he isn’t likely to torch the Patriots defense. They know how to stop a tight end, and they will do just that on Thursday Night Football.