Thursday Night Football Predictions - Denver Broncos vs San Diego Chargers

Denver Broncos players

Joe Gavazzi

Thursday, October 13, 2016 4:32 PM UTC

Thursday, Oct. 13, 2016 4:32 PM UTC

I usually shy away from games, where the NFL odds so obviously favor one team. But, the public easily remembers the Broncos’ struggle last Sunday and has recognized that the Chargers have been “oh, so close” in each of their last 3 defeats.


Denver Broncos vs San Diego Chargers

Last week, the bad luck Chargers botched the snap on a game time FG in the last minute of play. It drops the Chargers to 1-4 SU …WITH NO CHANCE OF MAKING IT TO THE PLAYOFFS FOR THE 3RD CONSECUTIVE SEASON. The losses have been by 6 in OT to Kansas City, by 4 at Indy, by 1 on this field to New Orleans and by 3 to Oakland. With last week’s loss to Oakland, the Chargers have now lost 10 consecutive division games and are just 3-12 ATS recently on this field. Miraculously, dating to 4 consecutive covers to close 2015, the Chargers are on a 7-2 ATS surge. Hope comes in the form of the right arm of starting QB Rivers, who has passed for more than 300 yards in each of the previous 3 games. With Atlanta QB Ryan lighting up the Denver secondary for 250 yards last week (1st time they allowed more than 189 in a game through the air), there is a glimmer of hope for the Chargers. Though the San Diego rush defense has dramatically improved from 125/4.8 to 83/3.6, they are still allowing 65% completions and 292 yards through the air. That’s bad news for San Diego, when noting the ground game has yet to get untracked, rushing for only 90/3.6, and that the defense overall is allowing 28 PPG and 375 YPG.

Compared to that Chargers’ defense, the Broncos have a meaningful edge. They are allowing 11 less PPG and 74 yards less YPG than is their host. Last week, when the Broncos fell behind visiting Atlanta (in an eventual 23-16 loss), rookie QB Lynch struggled to play from behind. The Broncos could gain just 267 total yards (the first time this year they failed to crack the 300 mark). Lynch was sacked 6 times in that contest! Tonight, however, QB Siemian (shoulder) is scheduled to make his return to start this game. Siemian has been a major surprise for the Broncos this season and a clear reason why they began the year 4-0 SU ATS. From a technical perspective, this figures to be all Broncos. They enter with an amazing road record of 15-0 SU in divisional play, 14-1 ATS. They have won and covered the last 5 games on this field vs. the Chargers with a near double digit margin. Finally, road teams have returned money for each of these competitors in recent seasons. The road team is now 15-4 ATS in Broncos’ games and 14-3 ATS in Chargers’ games.

Last weekend, there were a lot of “obvious” teams, who got the money in the NFL. Let’s try to ride that momentum to victory in this stand-alone Thursday Nighter! 

I invite you to put the NFL odds in your favor and join me in my NFL week 6 pick on the Denver Broncos tonight.


Free NFL Picks: Broncos -3Best Line Offered: at Bookmaker

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