Thursday Night Football Predictions Against The Spread - Denver Broncos vs San Diego Chargers

Trevor Siemian getting ready to walk into the field

Doug Upstone

Monday, October 10, 2016 4:51 PM UTC

Monday, Oct. 10, 2016 4:51 PM UTC

Week 6 is almost here and the first game on the card is between Broncos and Chargers. Here is the game breakdown for this AFC West encounter from handicapper who is 24-8 this season here making NFL picks.

Turns out those betting NFL football found out that Denver cannot just put anyone behind quarterback and there are actually ways to beat their defense with imagination and creativity. This does not mean San Diego is the right team to do, because, well, they are San Diego and if there is a way to lose a game the Chargers will come up with it.


Denver Covers If........

For the Broncos, the formula is simple, keep the rush attempts at around 30, which allows Denver to control the pace of the game. This opens up play-action passing game where whoever plays quarterback can find targets against a guessing defense. As we have also seen, the Broncos do not play it too conservative and if they find a weakness in the secondary, they will take deep shots hunting for big plays. Against the Chargers injury-depleted defense, make them pay and build a lead.

On defense, this is not exactly news either, stuff San Diego's pedestrian running game, make Philip Rivers have to consistently throw on second and third and long. This is more important from the previous point I made. Rivers can get impatient when trailing and against Denver's secondary that can mean tipped passes which leads to interceptions.


San Diego Covers If.........

With Danny Woodhead gone, this places greater emphasis on the use of Melvin Gordon. The second-year back is still fumbling too much and his yards per carry are nothing special, the idea is to get him 20 to touches, which keeps the San Diego defense off the field. In 2013 when the Chargers were a surprise playoff team, Rivers had a career-high completion percentage of 69.5 percent, yet the average per completion was still above 8.2 yards per completion, which meant shorter quicker passes and let receivers run with accurate balls. That is how they attack Denver.

Defensively, it is about attitude and discipline. Disguise run blitzes on early downs to disrupt the Broncos and keep them under 2.5 yards a carry any way you can. Find out if Denver QB's can throw effectively when having third and long.


Your Thursday Night Football Winner is?

The NFL odds from A-Rated Intertops ($200 bonus on first deposit) have Denver at opening number of -2.5. This is trickier than it looks until we for sure know who the Denver starting quarterback is, but by most accounts that will be Trevor Siemian, who is clearly more polished and skilled with the tools an NFL quarterback needs with accuracy and looking off receivers.

While some will say San Diego has bad luck, 10 turnovers in the past three games is not back luck, it is not doing your job correctly. With the Broncos having covered 10 straight AFC West road games and the Bolts 1-8 ATS in division home contests, I'll give the -2.5 with Denver for my Thursday night football picks.


Free NFL Picks: Denver -2.5
Best Line Offered: at Intertops

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