Thursday Night Football Picks - Saints vs. Panthers In Week 11

New Orleans Saints players gathered around

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, November 15, 2016 3:09 PM GMT

The NFC South clash between the Saints and Panthers features on TNF. Where is the value to be found in this second meeting for your NFL picks? Is it with Drew Brees or Cam Newton?

   New Orleans Saints vs Carolina Panthers

 

Point Spread Value

The Carolina Panthers are playing with a shocking lack of focus and apathy that belies their 2015 season in no uncertain terms. Yet, bookies and bettors blithely color their world rosy. Each and every game this season has seen the Panthers either open or close (or both) as the favorites against the spread. So it is this week again as the Panthers open around -4 (or thereabouts depending on your preferred bookmaker) on the NFL odds board.

News flash people: the Panthers are 2-6-1 ATS this season with a -0.6 losing margin and -5.1 differential versus the spread. Until the Panthers show they can actually win games, it’s hard to buy into this market. Heck, they lost to the Saints 41-38 as the -2.5 closing road underdogs. You are only as good as your record says, so they say in the NFL. Think the record speaks volumes.

 

Free NFL Pick: Saints +4 (-105)Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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The Survivor

The Saints (4-5 SU) are coming off one of the most disappointing loss of their season after the Broncos blocked what should have been a go-ahead extra point and ran it all the way down to the opposite end of the field to snatch the 25-23 win at Mercedes Benz Superdome. The Panthers (3-6 SU) are coming off a doozy, fritting away a 17-0 lead to the Chiefs to lose 20-17 at Bank of America. It’s safe to assume, neither team is in good spirits following the weekend. However, put on balance, the Panthers should be worried.

Auspiciously, the Falcons (6-4SU) dropped a game as well in week 10, which means there is still everything to play for in this tightly cast division and that sets up a right thriller for NFL bettors to sink their teeth into. The Saints took the first meeting 41-38 at the Dome to cover as the +2.5 home underdogs. Once again, the Saints are matched as the underdogs in this matchup but, arguably, they strike the more convincing pose than the Panthers. Didn’t they just absorb one of the toughest defenses in the league and very nearly win the game? If Drew Brees and the Saints can rise to the occasion, the Panthers are ripe for the taking.

 

Free NFL Pick: Saints +173Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Game Total

The first meeting between Drew Brees and Cam Newton was a good old-fashioned shootout. Not surprisingly, books have rolled out a high total in the fifties. The pair sport a 5-4-0 O/U record going into week 11 and it looks like early consensus betting is leaning almost exclusively towards the OVER on week 11 NFL picks. Sometimes you just go with the flow.

 Free NFL Pick: Over 51 (-110)Best Line Offered: at TheGreek

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