It’s hard to believe but we are already to Thursday, which means it’s time to kick off our NFL Picks for the week. This week the Dolphins and Bills hook up on Thursday night, and I have three valuable NFL Odds from bet365 to add to your prop picks for tonight.
|Either team 3 straight scores -205 (Best line: BetOnline)
No team 3 straight scores +170 (Best line: 5Dimes)
|Buffalo scores first +125 (Best line: Bovada)
Miami scores first -145 (Best line: 5Dimes)
|Longest TD scored o42.5 +100 (Best line: 5Dimes)
Longest TD scored u42.5 -125 (Best line: Bovada)
|Score in first 6:30 -145 (Best line:BetOnline)
No score in first 7:30 +125 (Best line: 5Dimes)
Race to the points (10)
With the Dolphins’ run game slowed down with the injury to Lamar Miller, this game could be pretty low scoring, and the Dolphins could be the main ones affected. Without a solid run game, they have to rely on Ryan Tannehill’s ability to move the ball down the field, and that is simply not there. Tannehill is still not that accurate on quick strike passes downfield, and without Miller to balance their attack, they have to rely on Damien Williams and Daniel Thomas, two backs without a lot of upside.
In that case, I think Kyle Orton and the Bills can score first tonight and get to ten points before the Dolphins. So far this season the Bills haven’t been great at scoring early, until recently. In their last two games the Bills have gotten to ten points first, and I think they could make it three in a row tonight. With NFL odds offering this choice at a price of +125, the value for them to do so is too good to pass up.
My Pick: Bills 1st to 10 points (+125)
Damien Williams TD Scored
After I get done trashing the Dolphins’ run game without Miller, I am going to recommend a wager on them! No, I’m not crazy, I just like good value, and Williams has it this week. Even though Miller is listed as probable for tonight’s game I doubt he plays his normal snaps on a short week. He was limited at practice all week, so I doubt they are going to have him trying to run in balls from two yards out against the stout Bills defense.
Enter Damien Williams, who seems to be the biggest beneficiary of Miller being a little banged up with his shoulder injury. Williams is a nice back and ran the ball well last week, and at +250, even though it’s a reach, I think it could be a valuable reach to take Williams to score a touchdown. Thomas has shown nothing in his last few seasons with the Dolphins, and if Miller can’t handle the workload, Williams will step up and do the job.
My Pick: Williams TD Scored (+250)
BUF/MIA O/U 3.5 FGs
Another factor in tonight’s game might be the kicking, and with a lower total and two solid defensive teams taking the field, there might be a ton of kicking tonight. Even though the odds of -125 are nothing to write home about, I think that the books have set them there for a reason. Online sportsbooks know that this could end up a kicking game, and over 3.5 field goals looks like a great NFL Odds value.
In their last two games, Caleb Sturgis has kicked seven field goals and made six of them, and he is 10/13 in his last four games. On the other side, Dan Carpenter, who used to play for the Dolphins, may want to get some kicker revenge against his old team. He has kicked and made five field goals in the Bills last two games, and on the season he has missed only twice. With these two teams going against one another on a short week, look for lots of kicks, making 'Over' 3.5 the final of my free NFL picks for this matchup.
My Pick: OVER 3.5 FGs (-125)