While the normal NFL Odds are inviting to say the least, I have found a couple of prop picks for tonight’s games that I feel have much more value than a spread or total pick. Follow along, as both of these NFL Odds come from Bet365 sportsbook.
I’m looking for the Saints to take command of this game early in the evening, and if that is indeed what happens, the Falcons are going to have to throw the ball a lot to keep up with Drew Brees and the Saints’ offense. This means that the Falcons’ Steven Jackson will likely play a limited role in the offense.
At Bet365, his total yards total tonight is only 65.5, and I think the under at -130 is the best play. Even though there is some chalk here, there has been nothing this season that makes me believe that Jackson will be able to have a good game here. He has eclipsed 65 total yards only twice this season, and since he has returned from injury, he is averaging only 3 yards per carry on the ground. It is looking more and more likely that the Rams took all of Jackson’s productive years away.
Jacquizz Rodgers is the team’s third down tail back, and if the Falcons are playing from behind, he will be in the game as much or more than Jackson. Even at home, I don’t think the Falcons will be able to run the ball on the Saints’ defense, and with a spread of almost double figures, I find it hard to believe the Falcons will be competitive in this game for very long. This will likely mean Jackson’s touches are limited.
My Pick: Steven Jackson ‘Under’ 65.5 total yards (-130)
On the other side, the Saints are dealing with some injuries, and the most prevalent at this point is Darren Sproles. Sproles didn’t practice all week, and he is looking questionable for tonight’s game. This means that the Saints will have to rely more on other passing targets, and with Jimmy Graham likely drawing double coverage the entire game, I see Marcus Colston have a great game. However, his receiving yards total is 70.5, with heavy juice on the over. I find this to be much less valuable than his TD price.
His touchdown price tonight is at +125, and I considering the circumstances, this is a great price for us. Although he only has two touchdowns to start the season, with Graham double covered and with Sproles limited/out, Colston is by far the best red zone option for the Saints. Colston scored two weeks ago, and he has been targeted a total of 15 times in the last two games.
While Colston’s red zone numbers are down this season, they are slowly creeping back up to normal production. In the past, Colston has been a huge red zone target for Drew Brees, and with more attention being given to Graham every week, Colston should start to see more red zone looks, and subsequently, more touchdowns. +125 on our NFL picks is great value for the Saints 2nd option in the passing game, and against a team that has already given up 14 TDs, I think Colston can haul one in tonight.
My Pick: Marcus Colston TD Scored (+125)