Thursday Night Football NFL Picks: Fade Struggling Seahawks Against 49ers

Joe Gavazzi

Friday, October 23, 2015 10:19 PM UTC

Friday, Oct. 23, 2015 10:19 PM UTC

The Seattle Seahawks look to get back on track when they visit the San Francisco 49ers. Go inside for our NFL pick of the day on this exciting Thursday Night Football matchup.

Seattle Seahawks (-7) vs. San Francisco 49ers, Thursday, October 22, 8:25 PM ET, CBS
The Seattle Seahawks travel to the Bay Area for their division rivalry game against the San Francisco 49ers.  In the Seahawks’ Super Bowl season of last, they beat the 49ers twice by scores of 19-3 on this field (as 1-point underdog) and 17-7 at home (as 9-point favorite).  That runs the series record for HC Carroll to 8-2-1 ATS, while San Fran QB Kaepernick is now 0-5-1 ATS vs. Seattle.  Those scores last year were a continuation of a low-scoring series trend which has seen the last 3 games in San Francisco, average just 26 PPG.

I have written all season that the Seahawks’ demise is upon us.  The 1-4 ATS record is enough to attest to that!   But, the linemaker and public simply do not believe.  Week after week, they expect a reversal of fortunes and the bounce back.  Today’s line is a prime example.  Sure, the 49ers are a shell of the 8-8 SU team they were last year.  Last year’s HC Harbaugh has departed for Michigan and the 49ers’ roster has the biggest turnover of any team in the NFL.  Often times, 1st year HC Tomsula is seen roaming the sidelines looking perplexed and confused.  But, their dip to 2-4 SU is nothing compared to the Seahawks’ drop from 14-5 SU last year to the same record as the 49ers’ 2-4 SU mark. But, there is a 7-point line swing for tonight's action from where this line was last year. 

There are multiple problems for the Seahawks that start with OL issues and even pervades the defense.  It is comforting to Seattle fans that despite the 2-4 SU record, they are outscoring the opposition 22-21 and outgaining them 352-320.  While the strength of schedule has featured Green Bay, Cincinnati and Carolina (3 undefeated teams), the wins have come at home against Chicago and Detroit, who have just 3 victories between them.   Of greater concern, continues to be the psychological issues resulting from last year’s Super Bowl loss.  The Seahawks led 24-7 and 23-14 in each of their last 2 games against Cinci and Carolina.  They were unable to hold either lead, including last week’s game, when the not-quite-ready for primetime Panthers stormed back for a 27-23 victory.  Even with a (+2) net TO margin, an over 80% chance of ATS victory, the Seahawks could not get the job done.

After their Week 1 crazy MNF upset of Minnesota and ensuing meltdown against Pittsburgh, Arizona and Green Bay (a combined 14-4 SU), San Fran has rebounded smartly to play a pair of competitive contests on SNF vs. the NY Giants (a 30-27 snatch defeat from the jaws of victory loss) followed by a 25-20 win on this field last week vs. a fading Baltimore team.  That gives this divisional home dog plenty of confidence, not to mention the motivation of seeing the Seahawks’ uniforms. 

Based on the above information, there is no doubt that you will have the NFL odds in your favor when we lineup with the San Francisco 49ers as our NFL pick of the day for Thursday Night Football.        

NFL Picks: 49ers +7 at 5Dimes

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