Three Winning NFL Picks For Sunday September 18th

Seattle Seahawks players and coaches stand and link arms during the singing of the National Anthem

Kevin Stott

Friday, September 16, 2016 4:59 PM GMT

Friday, Sep. 16, 2016 4:59 PM GMT

We usually look at who theoretically “got it wrong” in this spot, but let's take a look at the troika of games—three for you stooges—where it seems the bettors got it right in the Totals market and back this movement with some Trend-worthy free, bookie-banging picks for three Sunday afternoon games.

 

Miami Dolphins vs New England Patriots

5Dimes Totals: 42½ -110 (Sep. 12, 9:51 am. EDT)
5Dimes Totals: 41½ -110 (Sep. 14, 9:38 p.m. PDT)

 

Movement Analysis
The Total has only been actually bet down 1 point at Offshore sportsbook 5Dimes since it’s Open on Monday, but as you can see from the below NFL Odds page from Wednesday night, some other Offshore like Bookmaker, JustBet and BetCRIS have the Total at 41. And this money on the Under seems prudent as Garoppolo and the Patriots (8/1 to win Super Bowl at 5Dimes) should still be tentative on Offense with the OL still so banged up and the Dolphins (120/1 to win Super Bowl at Heritage). And Miami and QB Ryan Tannehill may be a bit tired for this NFL Regular Season Week 2 game from Gillette Stadium in Foxborough, Massachusetts on Sunday afternoon after traveling across the country to Seattle to play the Seahawks in Week 1 and then having to head all the way back east and eventually to Boston and Foxborough to get ready to play the best team in their division in Week 2. Also, the Patriots Defense (21, 21, 21 20 ppg L4 seasons) is way better than most give credit for these days. It’s one thing to not like New England, but it’s another to not profit from the machine-like qualities of the franchise which is still in the midst of a dynasty and so ably run by 17th-year genius NFL Head Coach Bill Belichick (160-121-7 ATS).

So with starting QB Tom Brady suspended, Eastern Illinois University product Jimmy Garoppolo will see if he can continue to build on the success he gained on Sunday Night Football in Glendale, Arizona, as New England (+222 to win AFC East at 5Dimes) defeated the host Cardinals in a predictably overbet prime game which saw the line actually close at (Cardinals minus) 9½ in some places and a result which saved many a sportsbooks’ ass after a great day for the players with so many close results benefitting so many NFL Week 1 Teaser Odds.

 

 

 

Why Consensus May Be Right
This game could be sluggish for the 1st Half, with Miami looking much better than most thought and having to be confident after its Week 1 performance against the Seahawks, especially on the Defensive side of the football. The Weather in Foxborough for Sunday afternoon may stifle scoring with the current forecast calling for likely Thunderstorms, a High of 77°, SSW Winds of 5-10 mph and an 80% chance of rain. So if attending, best bring your galoshes. The recent, relevant series Totals Trends show the Under is 6-2 ATS the L8 meetings in this AFC East series with both games last season going Under (NE 10-20 @MIA, Under 46, @NE 36-7 MIA, Under 51½). To me it seems both the early money on the Patriots (+333 to win AFC at 5Dimes) and the Under here is perceived Smart money with the Dolphins (55/1 to win AFC at Bookmaker, BetDSI) and new Head Coach Adam Gase improving but still facing Offensive Skill players like Julian Edelman, Danny Amendola, Rob Gronkowski, Martellus Bennett,LeGarrette Blount and a guy who will could end up being an invaluable player for the Patriots—WR Chris Hogan—at New England in the Home opener. Good luck Fish.

So with all of these 42’s gone Offshore—41½ is the highest number to be found right now, and able to buy that ½ up to 42, it seems well worth the small cost (10% usually) in this spot.

Free NLF Pick: Dolphins-Patriots Under 42
Best Line Offered: at Heritage where you can get 50% Cash Bonus

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New Orleans Saints vs New York Giants

5Dimes Totals: 51½ -110 (Sep. 11, 8:11 p.m. EDT)
5Dimes Totals: 52½ -110 (Sep. 14, 10:46 p.m. EDT)

 

Movement Analysis 
The Point Spread for this NFL Regular Season Week 2 Game from MetLife Stadium in East Rutherford, New Jersey on Sunday afternoon has just increased only 1 point so far since opening on Monday morning, but it’s Wednesday and it’s hard to imagine too many in the General Public backing the under in this spot at sportsbooks from Thursday to Sunday. The lowest current Totals number to be found at Offshore sportsbooks is a 52½ at 5Dimes, Pinnacle, Island, Jazz and some others. The L4 meetings in this NFC series have seen scores of NYG 49-52 @ NO, @NYG 52-27 NO, NYG 24-49 @NO and NYG 27-48 @NO, so with a whopping total of 308 points or an average of 77.0 ppg, backing the Over is the logical look here. And Ole Miss product Eli Manning (42-51-2 ATS at Home) at QB for the Giants (25/1 to win Super Bowl at GTBets) and New York (+203, to win NFC East at 5Dimes) playing its Home opener and Purdue-product and future NFL Hall of Famer Drew Brees (66-49-1 ATS on Road) and the Saints (100/1 to win Super Bowl at BetOnline, Bovada) again seemingly going to be so weak on D and capable of scoring quickly on Offense, there could be 40 or more points on the scoreboard by Halftime. Not brain surgery.

 

Why Consensus May Be Right
The Consensus is on the Over everywhere so far, but this Total could still rise near 55 with later (and slow) money coming into the marketplace with the Saints (50/1 to win NFC, at BetOnline) a notorious Over team (9-6-1 Over in 2015, 1-0 in 2016) and the G-Men (+1425 to win NFC at 5Dimes) also becoming a notorious Over club (11-5-0 in 2015, 1-0 in 2016). And a deeper dive of Trends from the good folks at Covers.com finds that the Under is actually 5-1-1 the L7 here in the Garden State, but that one of few Trends supporting the Under here. The Over is 6-1 the L7 Saints games on FieldTurf (MetLife Stadium), the Over is 5-1-1 the L7 after a New Orleans ATS Loss, 12-4 the L16 Week Saints games, 8-3-1 the L12 against a Team With a Winning Record and the Over is 7-3 in the L10 Who Dat games overall. And the Over is also 6-1 the L7 Giants Home games, the Over is 5-1 the L6 New York games vs. a Team With a Losing Record, 6-2 the L8 vs. the NFC, 7-2-1 the L10 Giants Week 2 games and the Over is 8-2 the L10 New York games on FieldTurf. And who would want to watch this aerial circus with a wager on the Under anyway? 

 

Free NLF Pick: Saints-Giants Over 52½ -110
Best Line Offered: at 5Dimes

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Seattle Seahawks vs Los Angeles Rams, Sunday

CG Technology Totals: 39½ -110 (Sep. 13, 7:08 p.m. EDT)
CG Technology Totals: 38½ -110 (Sep. 15, 12:12 a.m. EDT)

 

Movement Analysis
No one wants to hang a Totals or Side number yet for this NFL Regular Season Week 2 game Point with an Injury to Wisconsin-product QB Russell Wilson (Ankle) making sportsbooks both here in Las Vegas and Offshore hesitant to put a number up until they know more. A look at the current SBR Odds page reveals few Offshore sportsbooks with numbers up yet with Sportsbook.ag (SEA -7 -105, 38½ -110) being an exception for this one with CG Technology being one of the few in Sin City with odds up for this NFC West affair (SEA -6, 38½ -110) and Home debut for Georgia-product Todd Gurley and the new Los Angeles Rams on Sunday afternoon. One thing to remember here—and something which should keep this a tight, low-scoring Chess match, is that the Rams (+250, to win NFC West, GTBets, BetOnline) have had Doug Baldwin and the Seahawks (+455 to win Super Bowl, 5Dimes) number of late. Seattle (+115 to win NFC West at 5Dimes) also has massive OL problems and really struggled Offensively in its somewhat lucky 12-10 Win against the Dolphins in Week 1 so with the Rams (240/1 to win Super Bowl, BetDSI, Bookmaker) always so anemic Offensively (19, 22, 20, 17 pg in 2015), backing the Under here is the call, but getting it early might end up mattering here so try to grab it Thursday or Friday if you see it.

 

Why Consensus May Be Right
Again, only a 1 point move (toward the Under) so far but that’s with few sportsbooks having a number up from Monday-Wednesday for this contest. So it’s not a big Consensus yet, but few bettors expect a 100% Wilson (12-14-1 ATS on Road) and the Rams (66/1 to win NFC, BetOnline, Bovada) will have QB issues whether they use Case Keenum or California-product, Sean Mannion or Rookie Jared Goff, especially with the Seahawks (+455 to win NFC at 5Dimes) knowing their Offense in limping and that the D might have to carry the team as id did in Week 1 for Head Coach Pete Carroll. So if a Mannion-TCU Rookie Trevone Boykin duel breaks out...maybe a Total of 29½ wouldn’t be high enough here in Lipstick City in NFL Week 2 . The Trends here supporting the Under are overwhelming and voluminous, starting with the big one that the Under is 9-3 the L12 meetings in this NFC West series. The Under is also: 6- 1 in the L7 Seattle games overall, 7-1 the L8 Seahawks games vs. Teams With a Losing Record, 5-1 the L6 Seattle games after an SU Win and 12-5 the L17 Seattle games vs their division. The Under is also 4-1 the L5 Seahawks Week 2 affairs, the Under is 7-1 the L8 Rams games following an SU Loss of 14+ points, the Under is 5-1 the L6 Rams games vs. the NFC, the Under is 4-0 the L4 following a Rams SU Loss, the Under is 5-0 the L5 LA games against a Team With a Winning Record and the Under is 4-0 the L4 after a Rams ATS Loss. Need more? The Under is also 16-5 the L21 Rams games overall—including their Week embarrassment in Santa Clara against the 49ers where they scored 0 points—the Under is 5-2 the L7 Rams game in September and the Under is an impressive 36-17 the L53 Los Angeles (33/1 to win NFC, Bookmaker, BetDSI) games on Grass (LA Memorial Coliseum), an extremely healthy 67.9% clip.

 

Free NLF Pick: Seahawks-Rams Under 38½ -110
Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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2016 NFL ATS Picks Record: 19-8-0
2016 NFL Regular Season Record: 11-3-0

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