Three Underdogs to Avoid With Your Week 16 NFL Picks

Nikki Adams

Saturday, December 26, 2015 10:45 PM UTC

Saturday, Dec. 26, 2015 10:45 PM UTC

In this space we look at the underdogs trading on week 16’s NFL odds board with a view towards spotting those that might best avoided on your NFL picks.

49ers vs. Lions
The Niners are one of several underdogs trading on the NFL odds board in week 16. Oddsmakers have the Niners installed anywhere from 10 to 11-points, jumping out from an opening 9-to-9.5-points depending on your sportsbook of choice. There’s a lot going on in this matchup to consider. The Lions offense has been unreliable and inconsistent from week to week, yet they are coming off a 35-27 win over the Saints in MNF. The Niners, meanwhile, are coming off 24-14 loss to the Bengals as the 7-point home underdogs. It marked their second straight double-digit loss after losing to the Cleveland Browns 24-10 on the road. Clearly, the Niners can’t be trusted either.

SBR Consensus betting reveals some interesting betting trends for your NFL picks. The Lions have garnered just 43.44% of the spread tickets but 55.78% of the total dollars risked. The discrepancy between the tickets and money could be an indication of sharp money on the Lions over the course of the week. Ideally, we’d like the discrepancy to be bigger for the purposes of this column. Still, it’s enough of a discrepancy to contradict the square betting on the Niners as the public pounds the hefty spread and takes the points.

As mentioned above, neither team inspires  confidence on the NFL odds board, so inconsistent and disappointing they are this season. Forced to make a choice between the pair, the Lions at home appear to be a better option. Add to that the fact that the Niners are just 2-5 ATS on the road with a 16.1-point margin of defeat on average and a negative 8.9-point differential against the spread. You can still find a 9.5-point spread trading on this game at BetOnline.

NFL Picks: Lions -9.5

Best Line Offered: at BetOnline

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Browns vs. Chiefs
The Browns opened as 14.5-point road underdogs to the Chiefs at early doors but the NFL line has been bet down to 10-points, a drop of just over four points at most sportsbooks. That’s quite the significant drop, underscored by a reverse line move on the Chiefs. NFL betting trends at SBR reveal the Chiefs have 52.54% of the spread tickets and 65.85% of the money risked on this game. What the Chiefs have been able to do since a 1-5 SU start on the season is nothing short of remarkable. They are very much in the playoff hunt, not to mention they could still potentially seize the AFC West title. This is going to be a pivotal game towards that end and it’s only fortunate that they are coming up against the hapless Browns, who are 2-4 ATS on the road with a 14-point margin of defeat on average and negative 6.1-point differential against the spread.

NFL Picks: Chiefs -9.5 

Best Line Offered: at Bovada

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Steelers vs. Ravens
Steelers opened as the 11.5-point favorites to the Ravens at early doors, but the NFL betting lines have come down to 10-points at most sports betting shops. A reverse line movement despite the Steelers getting the bulk of the betting action, from 64.51% of the tickets to 72.25% of the money risked on this game. That’s somewhat interesting and could suggest sharp money at early doors was on the Ravens at +11.5 points. Obviously, the divisional aspect of this game has some NFL bettors thinking this one is going to be closer than the NFL odds suggest. Any other season that might be a sound opinion. This season, when the Ravens are the worst in the league with a 3-9-2 ATS with a 4.9-point margin of defeat on average and a negative 4.2-point differential against the spread, it’s hard to agree. At home, they are a whopping 0-6-1 ATS with a 7.4-point losing margin and a negative 8-point differential against the spread.

NFL Pick: Steelers -10

Best Line Offered: at Pinnacle

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