Three O/U Plays Worth Adding to Your Week 12 NFL Picks

Darin Zank

Saturday, November 28, 2015 9:40 PM UTC

Saturday, Nov. 28, 2015 9:40 PM UTC

It's getting late already this NFL season, and the weather is beginning to turn. But in places like Houston, Atlanta and Indianapolis they play indoors, which seems conducive to points. We like three OVERS for our NFL picks this week.

Banking on the Worst Defense in the League
New Orleans is long-known for its offensive prowess, but it also owns the worst defense in the league at the moment. This week Drew Brees and the Saints visit Houston to take on the Texans within the near-perfect playing conditions of the place they now call NRG Stadium.

The Saints just gave up 510 yards and 47 points in a loss at Washington last week. So New Orleans has now allowed at least 31 points five times this season, and 130 points over its last three games.

On the season the Saints rank second in the league in total offense, and yet they're getting outgained by 10 yards per game, because their defense ranks dead last, giving up 424 YPG.

Meanwhile, Brian Hoyer is expected to return as the starter for Houston, which has actually won three games in a row. The Texans beat the Jets last week without him 24-17.

Over the seven games this season Hoyer has taken the majority of the snaps Houston 5-2 on the OVERS, averaging 21 points per; in the three games he's missed the Texans are 1-1-1 on the totals, averaging 20 PPG.

Finally, these two teams are a combined 12-6 on the OVERS on the NFL odds this season; Houston games are averaging 44 points, New Orleans games 57 points.

NFL Picks: Saints-Texans OVER 48 at Heritage

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Vikes, Falcons Tangle in Atlanta
In a similar vein the Falcons and Vikings meet at the Georgia Dome.

Actually, Atlanta is 7-2 on the UNDERS this season, even though Falcons games have averaged 46 total points. But that lean can be attributed in large part to the large totals Atlanta has faced. A 26-24 win over Philly played UNDER 55; a 25-19 win over Washington played UNDER 48; a 23-20 loss to Tampa played UNDER 47; and last week's 24-21 loss to the Colts played UNDER 47.

Basically, all of those games were about one play from going OVER.

The Falcons also just lost leading rusher Devonta Freeman to a injury, and if they can't run the ball, Matt Ryan might have to throw it 45 times. And the more he throws the ball the better the chance this game plays OVER.

Minnesota, meanwhile, is 1-8-1 on the UNDERS, as Vikings games have averaged 40 points. Last week the Vikes got stymied by Green Bay, which somehow managed to contain Adrian Peterson. But that probably just makes him due for an explosion.

Minnesota only ranks 29th in total offense, but has scored at least 23 points five times. And 23 is more than halfway to 45.

Finally, kickers love kicking indoors, and these two teams have two pretty good kickers. And three or four field goals might come in handy.

NFL Picks: Vikings-Falcons OVER 45 at YouWager

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Shootout in Indy?
Finally, we come to a meeting between a rookie quarterback and a 40-year-old backup, as Jameis Winston and his Bucs visit Matt Hasselbeck and his (for the moment) Colts.

Tampa just put up 47 points on the Eagles in Philly last week, rushing for 283 yards, getting five touchdown passes from Winston. The Bucs are now 6-4 on the OVERS this season, as their games have averaged 49 points, and 5-2 on the OVERS over their last seven games, as Tampa has averaged 27 points during that span.

Indy, meanwhile, just rallied from two touchdowns down to beat the Falcons last week 24-21. So in the games Hasselbeck has started this season the Colts are only 1-2 on the OVERS, but averaging 22 points per. And 22 is just about halfway to 46.

Meanwhile, the Indianapolis defense has allowed 27 PPG over its last five outings.

Tampa is running the ball to the tune of 140 yards per game, and when you can run the ball, you'll get chances to throw it, too. On the other side of this match-up Hasselbeck can still lead a team on scoring drives, and he might even help our cause with a turnover or two.

We can see this game getting to 20-20, and we'll take our chances from there.

NFL Picks: Bucs-Colts OVER 46 at Pinnacle

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