Three NFL Picks for Packers vs. Vikings: SU, ATS & Total

Nikki Adams

Tuesday, November 18, 2014 5:18 PM UTC

Tuesday, Nov. 18, 2014 5:18 PM UTC

Can the Minnesota Vikings defy the NFL odds vs. the Green Bay juggernauts? Find out as we preview this clash complete with SU, ATS and Total NFL picks.

Green Bay Packers Relaxing Into History Books
Green Bay Packers torched the Bears and Eagles in successive weeks all while improving to 5-0 SU at home, highlighted by an average 26.8-point margin of victory. Scored the most points in football, including back-to-back 50-point-plus accounts, marking only the fifth team to go 50-points or more in back-to-back games in NFL history. Aaron Rodgers, with a league-leading 8.78 yards per passing attempt and a frightening 120.1 passer rating, is giving Peyton Manning a run for his money in MVP futures betting, and the Packers lead the league as one of the most efficient point-producing teams with a league high of 33-points per game. Talk about major talking points as far as the Packers are concerned in NFL betting circles.


Packers SU and at -9.5 over Vikings
There's nothing to scoff at or sweep aside where the Packers are concerned, certainly not against the spread. The Packers are 6-3-1 ATS overall this season, which includes a 10.5-point margin of victory. On the road, they are just 2-3 ATS, but that's trumped by their 6-1 ATS record in their last seven games home and away. Indeed, since their opening loss to the defending champions  and a hiccup against Detroit in week three (both on the road), the Packers have been one of the most consistent performers against the spread.

Past trends between the Packers and Vikings also tip the scale toward the Packers: they are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games when playing Minnesota, a run of form that includes the 42-10 win by the Packers over the Vikings at Lambeau Field in week 5 NFL betting as the 9-point home chalk. They are also 6-1 SU in their last seven games home and away and 8-1-1 SU in their last 10 games when playing Minnesota.

On one hand, it's interesting that the Packers are favoured by more points on the road than the 9.5-point at home for week 5 NFL betting in their divisional clash with the Vikings. Then again that's the effect back-to-back beat downs has on NFL odds. It's worth noting, some sports betting shops have the Packers trading as high as 11-points; for instance, 5Dimes is offering the Packers at -11.0 (+115) for brave NFL bettors.

Free NFL Pick: Packers SU and -9.5 at The Greek


Packers vs. Vikings To Go Over 48.5
Packers have been the most consistent OVER performers in total betting this season, going  9-1-0 in over-under betting. In other words, 90% of the time the OVER has cashed at online sports betting windows. What's more, their last seven NFL dates have all gone significantly OVER preset total NFL lines, including the 44-23 loss in New Orleans, all of which have forced bookmakers to come out of the pocket.

In spite of the browbeating bookies have received, they roll out a rather low NFL total for the Packers'  clash with the Minnesota Vikings, set to 48.5-points. Clearly, Minnesota's 3-7 over-under record has had a hand in this market outlook for this divisional clash. That it stands in blithe contrast to their earlier meeting which went over 50-points in a 42-10 win by the Packers can't escape NFL bettors surely. What's more, Vikings are 2-2 in over-under betting at home but 2-1 over-under with Teddy Bridgewater calling the plays, a run that includes wins over the Falcons (41-28) and the Redskins (29-26), and a loss to the Lions (17-3) in Bridgewater's first game back following an ankle injury. What's obvious, albeit in a small sample-size, is with Bridgewater and home edge the Vikings get more offense. NFL bettors should also pay close attention to the verdict on Adrian Peterson that is due to come out sometime this week, as early as Tuesday according to NFL reports.

In any event, if the Packers continue on the verve and swagger of the last two months in the NFL and the Vikings rise to the occasion, this rather modest total could be topped easily by the combined effort of both teams.  The OVER has cashed in four of the last five meetings between, three straight between these two outfits: 42-10 (October 2014), 26-26 (November 2013) and 44-31 (October 2013). Watch this trend continue when they collide in week 12 NFL betting, For your NFL pick take the Over 48.5-points.

Free NFL Pick: Over 48.5 at 5Dimes

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