Three Early Week 10 NFL Picks That Offer Great Betting Value

Swinging Johnson

Thursday, November 12, 2015 10:00 PM UTC

Thursday, Nov. 12, 2015 10:00 PM UTC

Swinger is back with his Week 10 NFL picks and is desperate to put together a midseason surge. Let’s review what the NFL odds makers are offering and find out which sides and totals are tops this week.

2015 NFL Record (13-16-1 ATS)
You have no idea how easy it is to write these weekly NFL picks articles when you’re on a heater. Unfortunately the opposite is true when you’re on a cooler. My sides have been positive cash flow this season but my totals have been an abject failure. We lost again last week with a total in the Giants/Bucs game as we advised a play on under 48 and the teams combined for 50 f****n’ points. Cest la vie. And not to be outdone the Saints laid down like the dogs that they are and not only cost me a cover but also knocked me out of my suicide pool. Ugh.


Bears vs. Rams (-6.5)
All but one of the major NFL odds makers are hanging the Rams-7 but if you shop on over to Heritage you can get them at -6 ½ and they are not even requiring you to pay an extra 10- to 20 cents to get that number. That’s a bargain in my book especially when you love the Rams in this spot like I do.

I liken the Rams to the Vikings with a top notch defense and a rushing attack led by a premier runner, aka Todd Gurley/Adrian Peterson. While their opponents on Sunday, the Chicago Bears, only lost by a field goal to Minnesota I believe they will lose by a whole lot more this week to the Rams. Let’s not forget that the Bears hosted the Vikings in the familiar confines of Soldier Field whereas this week they will play in St. Louis and do so on a short week courtesy of their Monday night adventure in San Diego where they upset the Dolts, er Bolts, 22-19.

In my estimation the Bears have been playing over their heads and the Rams are a force on defense as they rank 4th against the pass and 3rd in sacks which will make Jay Cutler cry for his mama.

Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six games in Week 10.

Rams are 5-1 ATS in their last six games as a home underdog of 3.5 - 10.

Bears are 6-13 ATS in their last 19 games following a S.U. win.

Bears are 18-38-1 ATS in their last 57 games after allowing more than 250 yards passing in their previous game.

NFL Picks: Play St. Louis -6.5 at Heritage

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Total (43) - Cowboys vs. Buccaneers
The Bucs defense has been downright offensive allowing almost 29 points per game, has given up 19 touchdowns this season which ranks them second to last in the league and has allowed opposing quarterbacks to complete over 70 percent of their passes which also ranks them as a cellar dweller. Now consider that they will be playing a Cowboys' offense fresh off Matt Cassel's best game of the season and with the addition of Dez Bryant who had a touchdown catch and 104 yards receiving in his first game back. Matt Cassel may not be Aaron Rodgers but when the man gets in a groove he can launch and is one of the best backups in the business.

But it takes two to tango if you bet over in your NFL picks and that means the Bucs will have to do some scoring of their own. I believe they will because Dallas is in the bottom third of points allowed averaging over 25 points per game and Jameis Winston looks much more comfortable on the field as he has developed chemistry with his receivers and is staying strong in the pocket instead of scrambling all over the backfield trying to buy time as he did in college. The pro game is much faster and there are no future accountants and school teachers chasing him around anymore. These are all big, bad and fast professionals and he is definitely learning it's a different level. If the Bucs' Doug Martin can gash the Boyz a bit on the ground it will open up the pass for Winston which is exactly what will happen because the Dallas run defense is not great and there will be plenty of opportunities. Here are a few stats to consider.

Over is 4-1 in Buccaneers last five games overall.

Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last four home games.

Over is 4-0 in Buccaneers last four games as a home underdog of 0.5-3.

Over is 5-0 in Cowboys last five games as a road favorite.

NFL Picks: Play Over 43 at GTBets

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Woodman’s Corner (6-3 ATS)
The Woodman clicked last week with the Titans much to my chagrin as I was on the other side with the enigmatic New Orleans Saints. This strange handicapper from parts unknown saw his shadow earlier in the week, much like the fabled groundhog in February, and mumbled something in his native Cherokee which loosely translated stated, "Red bird from desert conquers hawk from sea." I just wish he' d stop being so friggin dramatic...but we put up with him because he has been oh so good! Woodman says bet the Cardinals vs. the Seahawks.

NFL Picks: Cardinals +3 at GTBets

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