This Week’s Betting Edge: Super Bowl LII Alternative Betting Lines

David Schwab

Monday, January 29, 2018 6:47 PM UTC

Monday, Jan. 29, 2018 6:47 PM UTC

The Super Bowl is easily the biggest single-day betting event of the year, with billions of dollars in play for this one NFL game. On Sunday at U.S. Bank Stadium in Minneapolis, the Eagles and Patriots meet in what should be a very intriguing betting matchup.

Super Bowl LII: Betting Edge

When this pairing first took shape on Jan. 21 following New England's 24-20 victory against Jacksonville as an 8-point home favorite in the AFC Championship Game and Philadelphia's 38-7 romp over Minnesota in the NFC title game as a 3-point home underdog, 5Dimes opened the Patriots as 5.5-point favorites to win Super Bowl LII.

Early betting briefly took this spread to six points that night, but the line settled back to five in early action last week. Since then, it has been bet down to 4.5 points with money coming in on Philadelphia. That could easily change during the buildup for this heavyweight title bout in what could ultimately be viewed by bettors as a David vs. Goliath matchup when kickoff rolls around Sunday at 6:30 p.m. ET.

The total line for Super Bowl LII opened at 48 points at the major sportsbooks, and it has gone back and forth. The current line at BetOnline is 48.

Alternative Betting Lines

When pondering your Super Bowl picks, the best way to place any bet on a game as big as this is to first come up with your own scenario on how you see things playing out over all four quarters. If you have the Eagles jumping out to a fast start and fading down the stretch, you probably will want to focus some of your attention on the first-half lines favoring the Eagles from a value standpoint.

If you see defending champion New England rolling to another Super Bowl title, you might want to grab the Patriots minus the current 4.5 points in case this line starts moving the other way when some of the bigger money on the game rolls in.

It really does not matter how you see the game playing out, but you want to make sure you bet accordingly based on the numbers on the NFL odds board. One betting option that is a great way to maximize the value in the odds is to take a closer look at the alternative lines for the game. By moving the spread a few points in either direction, you can earn a serious return on investment if you correctly predict Super Bowl LII’s actual outcome.

Suppose you believe the underdog Eagles will complete this most unlikely run with a straight-up victory on Sunday. You could go with the favorable +175 moneyline odds in a head-to-head bet. One way to slightly hedge this bet to achieve better value is to take Philadelphia plus three points at a return of +131 for a $100 wager. This way you are covered if the Eagles keep this a three-point game either way. If you want to really roll the dice on Philadelphia, you could give 2.5 points to New England for a return of plus $202 if the Eagles cover.

Going back to the scenario where the Patriots get a fairly easy win, you can tweak the spread in that direction to boost your return. By laying the original six points, the return on New England covering would be plus $105 on a $100 bet. Boosting that spread to eight points would result in a plus $163 return if the Patriots win by nine points or more.

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Long before they were Super Bowl foes, Rob Gronkowski and Nick Foles "just balled" at Arizona.

— USA TODAY Sports (@usatodaysports) January 27, 2018

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