The Weekly Betting Edge: Wagering on NFL Draft Props

David Schwab

Monday, April 23, 2018 3:01 PM UTC

Monday, Apr. 23, 2018 3:01 PM UTC

The annual NFL Draft is one of the most highly anticipated and over-hyped events in the NFL offseason, and with the help of 5Dimes sportsbook you can make some money betting on it. This year’s draft takes place in Dallas from April 26-28. 

This year’s draft has one of the deepest classes for quarterbacks in recent memory with as many as five expected to come off the board in the first round. The Cleveland Browns and the New England Patriots have multiple picks in the opening round to add a bit more intrigue to arguably the worst and best team in the AFC heading into a new season. There are any number of interesting storylines heading into the 2018 draft, and to add even more excitement to this event is any number of 5Dimes betting props to try and cash-in on the proceedings.

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Only FOUR days until the 2018 @NFLDraft! 🙌

2018 #NFLDraft: April 26-28 on NFLN/FOX/ESPN

— NFL (@NFL) April 22, 2018

Overall No. 1 Pick

The highly coveted top pick in the draft goes to Cleveland this year due to its dubious 0-16 mark in the 2017 regular season. The debate rages on as to which player will come of the board first once the Browns are on the clock. The betting odds favor former USC quarterback Sam Darnold at -210 followed by signal-caller Josh Allen, out of Wyoming, at +260 betting odds.

Things really fall off from there, but I still think there could be some solid value in former Penn State running back Saquon Barkley at +700 odds to come off the board first. The Browns also have the fourth overall pick in the first round to land their quarterback. Given this team’s past track record of drafting quarterbacks in the first round, the front office should probably do the exact opposite of whatever it is planning to do.

Number of Quarterbacks Drafted in First Round

The OVER/UNDER for this prop has been set at five, with the betting odds favoring the UNDER at -210. The betting odds for OVER five quarterbacks coming off the board in the first round are set at +160.

When you look at the list of quarterbacks eligible for this year’s draft, this prop sets up as a PUSH, so you might want to hedge your bet with a small play on the OVER. Along with Darnold and Allen, former UCLA quarterback Josh Rosen is expected to be the third quarterback taken in the first round followed by Baker Mayfield out of Oklahoma.

The fifth QB on the list would be Lamar Jackson, who won the 2016 Heisman Trophy while playing for Louisville. He has been touted as the top player at this position by several NFL experts, and he should come off the board in the second half of the first round. The QB who might push this total OVER 5 before the end of Thursday night’s picks is Mason Rudolph, who played his college ball for Oklahoma State. New England at No. 31 is a possible landing spot.

First Three Picks are Quarterbacks

The prop bet odds that the first three players off the board are quarterbacks are set at +120 for yes and -160 for no. There is some risk/reward going with NO in this prop, but the presence of Barkley and former North Carolina State defensive end Bradley Chubb add quite a bit of value to the betting odds. I have the New York Giants taking Barkley with the second overall pick, while passing on Eli Manning’s replacement for the time being. Chubb could still go to Cleveland at No. 1, or we could see a team trade into one of the top three sports to grab him.

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