It’s almost time to lock in your NFL season-long prop bets for both players & teams. I have identified my 3 best player prop picks for this season, with NFL odds courtesy of Bovada sportsbook.
Most Passing Yards Prop
This season the most passing yards prop seems to be Peyton Manning, Drew Brees or the field. After Manning dominated pretty much every passing yard imaginable last season, it’s reasonable to believe that he should be the choice to do it again. However Brees and some other really valuable quarterbacks could also be solid plays. Brees and Manning are both priced at +275 to win the award this season via Bovada, however there is one more player that could have a chance to best these guys.
Aaron Rodgers is the forgotten elite quarterback from Bovada, and at +700 to win the most passing yards this season, he is probably the best value I can find. Before getting hurt last season, Rodgers was on pace for well over 5000 yards before getting hurt against the Bears last season, and if he can stay healthy, he has just as good of a chance to lead the league in passing as Brees and Manning. However you get more than double the value with Rodgers.
My Free NFL Prop Pick: Aaron Rodgers (+700)
Most Rushing Yards Prop
The rushing yards prop is always a tricky one, and you normally have to weed through to find the good values. However this season there seems to be a core group of guys that are the only ones with a shot. With the evolution of passing, the feature running back has become almost extinct. However there are some nice feature running backs with good NFL odds to win the award.
The favorite is of course, Adrian Peterson. However at his advanced age, and with no preseason time this year, that’s a tough bet to make. Last season’s champ, LeSean McCoy is second on the list at +450, however after a season with more than 1600 rushing yards, it’s hard to believe he will do it again with Darren Sproles now in the fold as well.
This may be the prop to simply just lay off, but if you do want a nice value play, look at Alfred Morris. The third-year running back had the 4th most rushing yards from scrimmage last season, and that was while not being on the field most third downs, and being on a bad team that didn’t get many rushing opportunities. Alfred Morris is an incredible NFL odds value at +1600, and if the Redskins are as good as I think they’ll be, Morris has a chance to rush for 1500 yards again. He already had over 1600 as a rookie.
My Free NFL Prop Pick: Alfred Morris (+1600)
Most Receiving Yards Prop
This one is a hard play, but I love the value being presented by some of these receivers. With Josh Gordon not likely to retain his title due to his looming suspension, there is one guy that looks like the best play.
Demaryius Thomas finished with one of the better catch rates last season among the top ten receivers, and he also did the most work with the least amount of targets. Now that Eric Decker is gone, the majority of his targets will likely go to Thomas. Thomas is +800 right now to win the award, behind only Calvin Johnson and Dez Bryant in Bovada’s NFL odds. Thomas was 4th in receiving last season with only 143 targets, and just 25 more targets would likely put him close to leading the league. At +800, the value is absolutely there for a big season from Thomas.
My Free NFL Prop Pick: Demaryius Thomas (+800)