The Best Week 5 NFL Picks on the Largest Totals

Matthew Jordan

Saturday, October 4, 2014 12:32 PM UTC

Saturday, Oct. 4, 2014 12:32 PM UTC

A decent Week 4 on picking games with the largest totals, hitting on Eagles-49ers 'under' 50.5 points and Packers-Bears 'over' 50. Missed on Saints-Cowboys 'under' 53.5 and 'under' Falcons-Vikings 47.5. Here are the Pinnacle highest Week 5 totals.

Atlanta Falcons vs. NY Giants (50)
Here are two teams it's really hard to get a read on. The Giants scored just 14 points each in their first two games, double-digit losses in Detroit and against Arizona. Eli Manning looked terrible and the running game wasn't giving him much help. In the past two games, both double-digit wins, Manning and the running game both have been terrific. In Week 4's blowout of the Redskins, Manning had four touchdown passes and ran for a fifth. He made a fantasy football star out of tight end Larry Donnell, who had three TD catches. New York rushed for 154 yards and forced six turnovers. Atlanta, meanwhile, might be a typical dome team: Very tough to beat at home but vastly different on the road. The Falcons beat the Saints and destroyed the Bucs at the Georgia Dome but have lost both road games by at least 13 points. How can you allow the Vikings to score 41 points with a rookie QB making his first career start? That's what the Falcons did last week.

NFL Free Pick: 'Over.' It has hit in five of Atlanta's past six vs. the NFC and in four of New York's past five after a win.

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Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs. New Orleans Saints (48)
You can count on New Orleans being on this list in every home game. The Saints are putting up plenty of yards, ranking third in the NFL, but for whatever reason they are scoring only 23.8 points per game. They haven't scored more than 24 since Week 1 and were held to 20 against Minnesota in Week 3, the Saints' only home game thus far in 2014. The team does miss injured running back Mark Ingram as he helped set up the pass for Drew Brees. He could have a big day against a Bucs defense that ranks 29th against the pass. In two road games, Tampa has allowed a combined 80 points, although that's obviously skewed by the 56 Atlanta scored in Week 3. Last season, these two played a close, low-scoring game in Tampa and then New Orleans won 42-17 at home in Week 17.

NFL Free Pick: 'Under.' It has hit in nine of the past 11 meetings and four of past five in New Orleans.

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Baltimore Ravens vs. Indianapolis Colts (47.5)
I fully expect these two teams to meet on wild-card weekend as the Colts should win the AFC South, even with Houston's improvement, and the Ravens probably finish second in the AFC North behind Cincinnati but earn a wild card. The Bengals and Broncos will be the AFC's top two seeds. The Ravens and Colts did meet in the wild-card round in Andrew Luck's rookie season, a 24-9 Ravens victory in Baltimore. The Ravens' offense was a disaster in 2013 under former coordinator Jim Caldwell (now coach of Lions) but is much improved this season, ranking No. 7 in total offense despite the loss of Ray Rice. The signing of Steve Smith looks brilliant. The Colts are tied with Atlanta for No. 1 in total offense. Andrew Luck has thrown for at least 370 yards and four touchdowns in back-to-back games and he's an MVP favorite with Peyton Manning. The Colts haven't scored less than 24 yet and gave up at least 30 to the two good teams they played so far. The team badly misses Robert Mathis, who would have debuted this week off suspension but is done for the season with an Achilles' injury.

NFL Free Pick: 'Over' at Pinnacle

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Arizona Cardinals vs. Denver Broncos (47.5)
Denver set an NFL record for points last season and scored at least 30 in every regular-season game but three. This year, the Broncos have reached 30 only once, in the opener against the Colts. They have gone down since, with 24 against Kansas City and then 20 vs. Seattle. Meanwhile, the Cardinals defense has yet to allow more than 17 points and Arizona is outscoring teams an incredible 30-0 in the fourth quarter this season. I touched on a Bovada special for Arizona in the fourth this week here on the site. This might have been a shootout if Carson  Palmer was playing, but it will be backup Drew Stanton starting for the third straight game. In addition, with both teams coming off a bye I believe that favors the defenses. Place your NFL pick on the Under for this matchup.

NFL Free Pick: 'Under.'

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