Texans vs. Bengals NFL Picks: Go 'Over' as Public Bets Monday Night Total Down

Teddy Covers

Monday, November 16, 2015 7:32 PM GMT

Monday, Nov. 16, 2015 7:32 PM GMT

With a disastrous week for those so called favorites, lets review Monday Night Football odds & betting trends to find the best side to back with our week 10 NFL picks.

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Monday Night Football Odds Preview
Bengals -10.5, O/U 46


This was a disastrous week for bettors who love NFL favorites, with underdogs cashing at an 11-2 clip heading into Monday Night Football. The only two favorites to cover were Carolina and Pittsburgh, and incredibly, all eleven underdogs that covered the spread also won the game in straight up fashion. No surprise, then, that we’ve seen some (light) Texans money on gameday, driving this spread down from -11 to -10.5 at most ‘leading indicator’ books.

Bengals Season Performance
Cinci is no joke.  I’ve had the Bengals power rated as my #2 team in the NFL for more than a month now. Hue Jackson’s offense is clicking on all cylinders, thanks to strong QB play from Andy Dalton and the bevy of skill position talent surrounding him. Dalton had a QB rating between 81 and 88 in each of his first four seasons as the Bengals starter. This year, it’s 111.  Dalton is avoiding the mistakes that plagued him in seasons’ past, and he’s shown newfound resilience, like we saw when the Bengals rallied from 17 own to beat Seattle earlier in the season. But the betting markets remain reluctant to support Dalton in big primetime games, where he’s struggled repeatedly in recent seasons.

The Bengals defense has been equally good – teams don’t get to 8-0 by accident. But the Bengals yards-per-play numbers are below the league average on the defensive side of the football.  And Cinci hasn’t exactly been shutting down elite offenses. They got the Bills with EJ Manuel behind center. They faced a ‘not ready yet’ Ben Roethlisberger in his first game back from injury when they shut down Pittsburgh. The Raiders weren’t anywhere near the same level offensively when Cinci beat them in Week 1 that they are now. The Texans offense isn’t elite by any stretch of the imagination, but neither is the Bengals defense.

 

Recent Trends Favor Texans
Teams coming off a bye (and not facing another team off a bye) are 15-4 ATS this season, a trend that works in the Texans favor tonight, just as it worked for the Lions and Chiefs yesterday. That being said, the Texans defense has been an underachieving unit all year, most notably on the road. In their last two road tilts against decent completion, the Texans allowed 48 points to Atlanta and 44 to Miami, showing extreme vulnerability to big plays. That’s certainly not good news against an offense of this caliber.

But the Texans have shown an ability to move the football in recent weeks, with Brian Hoyer settling in as the starter. With a 13-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio and a 97.1 QB rating, Hoyer has guided the team to at least 20 points in all six games that he’s played. It’s surely worth noting that he carved up the Bengals defense when he faced them with the Browns last year.  And WR DeAndre Hopkins has emerged as an elite level downfield threat, despite Houston’s lack of a consistent running game.

I see both offenses slightly ahead of the defenses tonight. After opening a few points higher on most NFL odds boards, this total has been bet down to 46, there’s reasonable value to grab the Over with your NFL picks, expecting a relatively high scoring affair.

NFL Pick: Take the Over 46 at 5Dimes

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