With bettors losing their minds after Week 1, the Over belongs in your NFL picks when the Cleveland Browns host the Houston Texans.
Houston Texans vs. Cleveland Browns
Sunday, September 19, 2021 – 1:00 PM ET at FirstEnergy Stadium
It’s always nice to start a new season on the winning foot. Technically, we only went 2-for-3 with our Week 1 NFL picks here at the home office, although we did recommend the Detroit Lions versus the San Francisco 49ers. Detroit moved from +7.5 to +9.5 by game time, and ended up losing 41-33. Who says public money doesn’t move the NFL lines anymore? Make sure you time your bets appropriately, either right at the open or just before kick-off.
The more important point from Week 1: Not including Monday night’s result, underdogs went 8-7 SU and 11-4 ATS, while the Under went 9-6. It was an old-school handicapper’s dream come true – and we’re hoping to capitalize this Sunday when the Cleveland Browns host the Houston Texans. To the pickmobile!
In theory, Week 2 is when the sharps take advantage of all the public bettors who over-react to what happened in Week 1. And what they saw was Houston trounce the Jacksonville Jaguars 37-21 as three-point home dogs. Once again, QB Tyrod Taylor exceeded expectations, filling in for the disgraced Deshaun Watson and game-managing his way to the bank. That was against the Jaguars, though. Doing the same against the Browns won’t be easy.
Ah, yes, the Browns. They were a fashionable Super Bowl pick – still are, at +1500 on Bovada’s (visit our Bovada Review) NFL odds board – and they gave the Kansas City Chiefs all they could handle before losing 33-29 as 5.5-point road dogs. Maybe their supporters will be a bit too emboldened for what should be an easy matchup with the Texans, who are getting 12.5 points for this contest at BetOnline (visit our BetOnline Review). Alas, that’s the same 12.5 points the fine folks at FiveThirtyEight project Cleveland to win by. Phooey.
Not to worry: There’s also a 48-point total on the board at GTbets (visit our GTbets Review), and the early consensus reports show 94 percent of bettors pounding the Over for this contest. Early money is sharp money, right? We don’t have exact score projections to work with at press time, but we’re willing to consider a small bet on the Over, as we try to capture some of that betting value from the public going ape after what happened in a dream Week 1 for the top sportsbooks.
As it happens, both the Texans and Browns went Over last week – although in Houston’s case, they were facing a Jacksonville team that’s rebuilding from the ground up. Cleveland allowed all those points to arguably the best offense in football. They’ll probably be less generous when Houston come to town, but again, Taylor is highly under-appreciated at quarterback, and there’s a good chance we’ll see Baker Mayfield and the Browns rack up at least another 29 points against the Texans. Bet accordingly, and may the prolate spheroid be with you.
NFL Pick: Over 48 (-109) at GTbets
*The pick reflects the line at the moment the writer made the play, the odds at the beginning of this article show the live line movement. Since the lines might vary, don’t forget to refer back to our live odds.